化工日报：PTA跟随成本震荡运行-20250606

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [4] Report's Core View - PTA follows cost to move in a volatile manner. The PTA futures closed down on Thursday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis rebounded. The weekly polyester load was stable with a slight decline [1]. - In terms of cost, the market is concerned about OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical changes, and oil prices are moving in a volatile manner. The gasoline cracking spread has a seasonal rebound, but the upside is limited due to new energy substitution. The aromatics blending demand for gasoline is not promising, and the intermittent blending demand can be basically met by naphtha. The export of aromatics blending materials from South Korea to the US has declined. The short - process PX plants are restarting due to profit recovery [2]. - For PX, the PXN was 262 US dollars/ton (no change compared to the previous period). The PX load at home and abroad has increased recently, and the PXN has declined with the supply recovery. The spot market is still short of goods, and the continuation of the tight PX supply - demand situation needs further attention [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the main contract is 216 yuan/ton (a 19 - yuan increase compared to the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 397 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan increase compared to the previous period), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 359 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan decrease compared to the previous period). PTA is expected to destock in June, but the strong polyester production - cut sentiment affects the demand expectation [3]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 91.7% (a 2.2% decrease compared to the previous period). Since mid - May, due to the rapid rise of raw material prices and the weakening of orders in the weaving sector, the polyester production - cut feedback has emerged, and the demand expectation is weak in the off - season [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit is - 2 yuan/ton (an 8 - yuan decrease compared to the previous period). The demand has declined since mid - May, and some factories have the intention to cut production [3]. - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is 243 yuan/ton (a 52 - yuan decrease compared to the previous period). The polyester load is at a high level, the overseas market trading is average, the inventory pressure of bottle - chip factories has increased, and the market price is expected to face pressure [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The report shows the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural - white basis [8][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - It presents the PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It shows the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It presents the PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - The report includes the filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple - fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing operating rate, filament FDY profit, and filament POY profit [46][48][58] PF Detailed Data - It shows the polyester staple - fiber load, polyester staple - fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple - fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure - polyester yarn operating rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [69][78][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The report includes the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][89][92]