饲料养殖产业日报-20250606

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Pig Market: In the short - term, the pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, with prices likely to decline but limited by factors like secondary fattening and low frozen product inventory. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large, and the forward price rebound is under pressure. The futures market is expected to be in a low - level shock in the short - term [1]. - Egg Market: Short - term egg prices lack support due to weak post - festival demand. In the third quarter, supply and demand both increase, and price rebound is under pressure. In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure may ease [2]. - Oil Market: The current oil market shows differentiation. Palm oil is relatively strong, but the overall inventory accumulation trend in Malaysia restricts its rise. Soybean oil has supply pressure and uncertainty about biodiesel policies. Rapeseed oil has price support from the relationship between China and Canada, but there is short - term supply pressure [5][6][7]. - Soybean Meal Market: In the short - term, the soybean meal market is expected to be in a wide - range shock. In the long - term, due to factors such as increased import costs and tightened supply and demand, the price is expected to rise steadily [8][9]. - Corn Market: In the short - term, the corn price has support, and the futures price is expected to be in a high - level shock. In the long - term, the supply and demand are marginally tightened, but the price increase space is limited by substitutes [9]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - Spot Price: On June 6, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan/kg compared to the previous day, while the price in Guangdong remained stable [1]. - Supply and Demand: In June, the supply pressure is large, and the seasonal demand is weak. In the long - term, the supply from June to September 2024 is increasing, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large [1]. - Strategy: The futures market is in a low - level shock in the short - term. It is recommended to short at the rebound pressure level [1]. Egg - Spot Price: On June 6, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing decreased compared to the previous day [2]. - Supply and Demand: Short - term demand is weak after the Dragon Boat Festival. In the medium - term, the supply in July - August 2025 is expected to increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [2]. - Strategy: For the 07 contract, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 08 and 09 contracts, it is recommended to hedge when the price rebounds. For the 10 contract, it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. Oil - Palm Oil: On June 5, the Malaysian palm oil futures price decreased. The export in May improved, and the inventory accumulation slowed down. In the long - term, the inventory accumulation trend remains. The 08 contract is in a shock stage after the rebound [3][5]. - Soybean Oil: The EPA is about to announce the US biofuel blending plan. The US soybean fundamentals are mixed. The domestic soybean to - port volume is large, and the inventory accumulation expectation is strong [6]. - Rapeseed Oil: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level, and the price has support from the relationship between China and Canada [7]. - Strategy: The 09 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be in a range shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil - meal ratio short - selling strategy [8]. Soybean Meal - Spot Price: On June 5, the domestic soybean meal spot price was 2790 yuan/ton, and the basis was 09 - 170 yuan/ton [8]. - Supply and Demand: In the short - term, the US soybean is expected to be in a shock. The domestic soybean supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price is expected to rise steadily [8][9]. - Strategy: The 09 contract is recommended to operate in the range of [2930, 3000] in the short - term and go long after the callback in mid - June [9]. Corn - Spot Price: On June 5, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port remained stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao decreased by 6 yuan/ton [9]. - Supply and Demand: In the short - term, the price has support. In the long - term, the supply and demand are marginally tightened, but the price increase space is limited by substitutes [9]. - Strategy: The overall trend is expected to be stable and upward. The 07 contract is in a high - level shock, and it is recommended to go long at the lower edge of the range. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 4. Today's Futures Market Overview | Product | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two Days Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active (US cents/bushel) | 1,050.50 | 1,044.75 | 5.75 | | Soybean Meal Main (Yuan/ton) | 2,958 | 2,939 | 19.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal (Yuan/ton) | 2,900 | 2,900 | 0.00 | | CBOT Corn Active (US cents/bushel) | 438.25 | 438.00 | 0.25 | | Corn Main (Yuan/ton) | 2,335 | 2,333 | 2.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot (Yuan/ton) | 2,330 | 2,330 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active (US cents/pound) | 46.62 | 46.72 | - 0.10 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil (Yuan/ton) | 7,980 | 8,000 | - 20.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active (Ringgit/ton) | 3,904 | 3,950 | - 46.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot (Yuan/ton) | 8,530 | 8,600 | - 70.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active (Canadian dollars/ton) | 695.10 | 699.80 | - 4.70 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot (Yuan/ton) | 9,160 | 9,160 | 0.00 | | Egg Main (Yuan/500 kg) | 2,878 | 2,877 | 1.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot (Yuan/jin) | 2.70 | 2.70 | 0.00 | | Pig Futures Main (Yuan/ton) | 13,485 | 13,490 | - 5.00 | | Henan Pig Spot (Yuan/kg) | 14.21 | 14.21 | 0.00 | [10]