有色金属日报-20250606

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern due to limited upside and downside space, influenced by factors such as tariff concerns, supply disruptions, and inventory levels [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to factors like tariff hikes, the decline of photovoltaic installations, and the arrival of the off - season [3]. - Nickel prices are expected to have limited downside due to cost support but are likely to be weak and volatile in the medium - to - long - term due to supply surplus [4]. - Tin prices are expected to be volatile, and range trading is recommended, with attention on supply resumption and downstream demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - Copper: As of June 5, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract closed at 78,170 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. Tariff issues add negative sentiment. The upstream copper concentrate market is quiet, and the TC price is stable. The Kankola mine earthquake may impact supply. Downstream demand is average, and post - holiday copper price upside is limited, but so is the downside [1]. - Aluminum: As of June 5, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract closed at 20,010 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The Guinea AXIS mine is restricted, and its impact on imports will be seen in July. Alumina production capacity is increasing, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is also rising. Demand is weakening, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to be weak [2][3]. - Nickel: As of June 5, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract closed at 121,570 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The Indonesian nickel ore market is tight, but downstream demand is weak, and the overall situation is one of supply surplus, with prices expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - Tin: As of June 5, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract closed at 258,900 yuan/ton, up 1.47%. The price rebounded due to slower - than - expected resumption in Myanmar. Supply is improving but limited, and prices are expected to be volatile [5]. Spot Transaction Summary - Copper: Domestic spot copper prices fell, and the market was quiet with low demand and limited future demand growth [6]. - Aluminum: Spot aluminum prices fell, and the market was bearish. Sellers accelerated sales, and demand was mainly for basic needs, resulting in light trading [7]. - Alumina: Spot prices were stable, and the market was moderately active, with limited demand growth [8]. - Zinc: Spot zinc prices fell, and the market was quiet, with high premiums supporting sellers [9][10]. - Lead: Spot lead prices rose, and demand was mainly for rigid needs, with high discounts for sellers [10][11]. - Nickel: Spot nickel prices fell, and downstream buyers were cautious, leading to low trading activity [12][13]. - Tin: Spot tin prices rose, and downstream buyers were cautious due to high prices [14]. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE: Copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, while zinc futures warehouse receipts increased, and lead futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. - LME: Copper, tin, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, while lead and zinc inventories increased [16].