生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250606

Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report | 2025-06-06 [1] - Author: Shi Xiangying, a pig analyst with futures qualification F03086321 and trading consultation qualification Z0019355 [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short-term pig prices may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium to long term [4] - Based on sow and piglet data, the pig supply in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 will be abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices [4] - The demand in Q2 and Q3 provides weak support for pig prices, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly [4] - If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows [4] - Although there is a possibility of new lows in spot prices, due to high uncertainty and the fact that current weight reduction is beneficial to the 09 contract, the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Dynamics - On June 5, the number of registered pig futures warehouse receipts was 0 [2] - The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on spot-futures convergence and delivery games. The far-month contracts are affected by the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in future supply, showing a weak and fluctuating trend [2] - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 999 lots today, with a position of approximately 77,600 lots. The highest price was 13,530 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,445 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,485 yuan/ton [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of sow inventory, the pig supply from March to December is expected to increase monthly, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the pig supply in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 will generally increase in a fluctuating manner. In terms of demand, the first half of the year is the off-season, while the second half is the peak season [3] - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, the spread between fat and standard pigs may fluctuate and adjust [3] - Market bearish logic: ① Farmers have not yet reduced the weight of pigs, which is actually bearish for the future market; ② Future supply is expected to continue to increase; ③ Q2 and Q3 are not the peak consumption seasons, and demand provides limited support for pig prices. Bullish logic: ① There is still room for an increase in frozen pork inventory, which can support pig prices; ② Spot prices are firm, indicating that supply and demand are not as loose as bears expect; ③ Although future supply will increase, the increase is limited, and Q3 and Q4 are gradually entering the peak pig consumption season [3] 3. Strategy Recommendations - Short-term pig prices may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium to long term [4] - Core logic: ① Based on sow and piglet data, the pig supply in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2025 will be abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices; ② The demand in Q2 and Q3 provides weak support for pig prices, making it difficult for prices to rise significantly; ③ If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows; ④ Although there is a possibility of new lows in spot prices, due to high uncertainty and the fact that current weight reduction is beneficial to the 09 contract, the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 4. Market Overview - On June 5, the national average pig slaughter price was 14.21 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.49% from the previous day. The average slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 14.17 yuan/kg and 14.01 yuan/kg, down 0.12 yuan/kg (0.84%) and 0.1 yuan/kg (0.71%) respectively [6] - Among the futures contracts, the prices of most contracts declined slightly, except for the 05 and 11 contracts, which increased by 0.12% and 0.15% respectively [6] - The main basis in Henan was 685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton or 14.38% from the previous day [6] 5. Key Data Tracking - Includes the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main pig contract in Henan, the spread between the 09-11 contracts, and the spread between the 11-01 contracts [14]