Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the bond market, it is expected that there will be no trend - like market, and investors should remain cautious [7]. - Regarding the stock index, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and investors may consider going long on stock index futures [10]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and investors may consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For most commodities, specific strategies are proposed according to their respective fundamentals, such as going long or short, or waiting for opportunities to enter the market. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - Last trading day, Treasury bond futures showed a differentiated closing performance. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts had different changes in prices. The central bank conducted 126.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 139.5 billion yuan on that day. It is expected that there will be no trend - like market, and investors should remain cautious [5][7]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The Chinese economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The market lacks confidence in corporate profits. However, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and investors may consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver main contracts had certain price increases. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors may consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures opened high and closed low. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is declining. The market has entered the off - season, and the price of rebar has reached a new low this year with a risk of further decline. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are similar to those of rebar. The price valuation of steel products is currently low, and the futures may show a weak and volatile short - term trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management [13][14]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The daily output of hot metal has declined from its peak, and the supply has increased after April. The inventory is relatively stable. The valuation of iron ore is the highest among black - series products. The futures have been supported near the previous low. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, take profits on rebounds, and stop losses if the price falls below the previous low, while paying attention to position management [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and consolidated. The coking coal and coke market is in a state of oversupply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the market sentiment is bearish. The output of steel mills' hot metal has declined, and the procurement intention of steel mills has decreased. The profit of coking enterprises is maintained, and the supply of coke is relatively stable. The spot price of coke has started to decline again. The futures may stop falling in the short - term, but the medium - term weakness has not reversed. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and take profits in a timely manner [18][19]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose, and the silicon - iron main contract fell. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. The inventory of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron is at a high level. After the rebar production enters the off - season, the short - term demand for ferroalloys may peak. If the spot losses of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron increase significantly, investors can consider virtual - value call options [21][22]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated downward. OPEC + plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, which is in line with expectations, and may suspend or reverse the increase. However, there are rumors that OPEC may also increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, which has caused market concerns. The pressure of OPEC on oil prices is expected to have passed the most severe moment, and the oil price is expected to strengthen. Investors can consider a long - biased operation on the main crude oil contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. The supply of Asian fuel oil is increasing, and the demand from Japanese and Korean power plants has decreased. The spot market is active. The inventory of Singapore fuel oil has increased for three consecutive weeks, but the recovery of global trade demand and the rebound of crude oil prices at the cost end are expected to drive the price of fuel oil to rebound. Investors can consider a long - biased operation on the main fuel oil contract [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the main synthetic rubber contract fell. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost end is expected to rebound to drive the market to stabilize and rebound. Investors should wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the main natural rubber contract and the 20 - rubber main contract rose. The demand side is still worried about the future, and the domestic inventory has increased against the season. The supply side is affected by rain, and the raw material output is low. After the market stabilizes, investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities [31][33]. PVC - Last trading day, the main PVC contract fell. The short - term fundamentals change little, mainly following the macro - sentiment. The supply is gradually recovering, the export demand is good, and the domestic demand is weak. The cost - profit situation varies in different regions. The market is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state [34][36]. Urea - Last trading day, the main urea contract fell. The short - term cost has decreased, and the agricultural demand has not been released intensively. However, the export demand may increase in the second half of the year, and the agricultural demand will be released later. The market may stabilize and rebound. Investors can consider going long on dips [37][39]. PX - Last trading day, the PX2509 main contract fell. The PXN and PX - MX spreads have changed. The supply has increased due to the restart of maintenance devices and the postponement of planned maintenance. The short - term crude oil price fluctuates, and the supply - demand structure is tight. However, after the PXN recovers to a relatively high level, it may fall back. The market should be treated with an oscillating mindset, and investors can operate cautiously within the range [40]. PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2509 main contract fell. The supply has increased due to the restart of some devices, and the demand has decreased as the polyester load has been adjusted. The cost end has support. The short - term supply - demand structure of PTA has weakened, but the inventory reduction makes it relatively resistant to decline. Investors can consider operating within the range on dips [41]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract fell. The supply has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased significantly. The downstream polyester start - up has decreased, and there is still an expectation of further reduction. The short - term supply - demand of ethylene glycol has weakened, but the significant inventory reduction has increased short - term trading opportunities. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and macro - policies [42]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2507 main contract fell. The supply load is maintained at a high level, the downstream demand has weakened, and the cost end has support. As the processing fee is continuously compressed, there may be further production cuts. The market will mainly follow the cost end to oscillate and adjust, and investors can consider participating cautiously on dips [43]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle chips 2507 main contract fell. The cost end has weakened, the supply load has decreased, and the demand side has improved. The market is expected to follow the cost end to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to cost - price changes [44][45]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main soda ash 2509 contract fell. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream demand is cautious. The long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change, and the inventory is sufficient. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable, and investors should not chase the long - position excessively [46]. Glass - Last trading day, the main glass 2509 contract fell. The total production line has little change, and the actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force. The market sentiment is weak. The market is at a historical low, and the short - term rebound may not be sustainable. Short - position investors at low levels should control their positions, and should not chase the long - position excessively [47][48]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the main caustic soda 2509 contract fell. The supply is expected to be relatively stable next week, and the demand may be adjusted. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose with obvious regional differences. Investors should focus on enterprise device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [49]. Pulp - Last trading day, the main pulp 2507 contract fell slightly. The domestic and international supply is abundant, and the downstream consumption is weak. Affected by the breakthrough in tariffs, the market is expected to rebound in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to whether international pulp mills start substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption - stimulating policies [50]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract fell. The cost support has weakened, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand has slowed down. The supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine - end production capacity [51]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated higher. The US refined copper inventory has increased, and the copper tariff issue has not been resolved. The positive market sentiment after the Sino - US leaders' call is beneficial to the copper price. Investors can consider a long - biased operation on the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply is expected to increase as mines resume production, and the cost has increased. The downstream demand is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The market is in a game between the current shortage and the loose expectation. The tin price is expected to face upward pressure and show a bearish - oscillating trend [54]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The supply of mines is expected to be tightened, and the cost support is strong, but the downstream loss is increasing. The demand side is weak in both the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weak [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose, and the soybean oil main contract fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean meal and soybean oil has different trends. The soybean meal price may face upward pressure, and investors can wait and see. For soybean oil, investors can pay attention to virtual - value call options at the bottom - support range [56][57][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to increase, and the domestic import has decreased. The palm oil inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in the past seven years. Investors can wait for the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed is relatively strong. The domestic import of rapeseed oil has increased, and the inventory situation of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is different. Investors can consider buying rapeseed meal after a pull - back [61][62][63]. Cotton - The domestic cotton market is in a weak - oscillating state, affected by the unclear Sino - US economic and trade relations. The US cotton export is strong, and the domestic cotton planting area has increased. The industry is in the off - season, and new orders are limited. Investors should wait and see and pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies [64][66][67]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market has fluctuated. The domestic sugar production and sales have increased this year, and the inventory has decreased. The Asian sugar production outlook is good. The Brazilian sugar production is currently low but is expected to increase. The domestic sugar price is undervalued, and investors can consider buying in batches [68][70][71]. Apples - The domestic apple futures have oscillated. The production in some areas may decrease, and the inventory has decreased. The new - year contract represents the new - year purchase price, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity to buy after a pull - back [72][73]. Pigs - The live - pig price has fallen, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak after the festival. The contract is at a discount, and the risk - return ratio of further short - selling is limited. Investors can consider positive - spread opportunities in the peak - season contract [74][75]. Eggs - The egg price is stable, the cost has decreased, and the inventory of laying hens is at a relatively high level. The supply is expected to continue to increase in June. Investors can consider short - selling after a rebound [76][77]. Corn and Starch - The main corn and corn - starch contracts rose. The supply pressure of corn still exists in the short - term, and the demand maintains a small - growth trend. The supply - demand of domestic corn tends to be balanced, and the price has bottom - support. The corn - starch market has weak supply and demand, and investors should wait and see [78][79][80]. Logs - Last trading day, the main log 2507 contract fell. The freight of imported coniferous logs has decreased, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot price has fallen. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the market transaction is light, with weak support for the market [81][82][83].
西南期货早间评论-20250606
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-06-06 05:04