Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On June 5, equity index futures rose, while CGB futures had mixed performance. Most commodities declined, with energy & chemical futures leading the declines [4][6][14][16]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3 in May, falling below the critical threshold for the first time since October 2024, while the Caixin China Services PMI rose to 51.1, indicating that the pace of business expansion in the services sector has accelerated [4][6][45][46]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On June 5, equity index futures rose, CGB futures had mixed performance, and most commodities declined, with energy & chemical futures leading the declines [4][6][14][16]. - The top three gainers were fiberboard (up 2.3% with a 226.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), coking coal (up 1.7% with a 3.4% month - on - month increase in open interest), and tin (up 1.5% with a 10.2% month - on - month decrease in open interest) [14][16]. - The top three decliners were aluminium oxide (down 2.9% with a 6.5% month - on - month increase in open interest), urea (down 2.9% with an 11.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), and rapeseed (down 1.8% with a 10.0% month - on - month increase in open interest) [15][16]. 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Coking Coal - On June 5, coking coal increased by 1.7% to 768 yuan/ton, and on June 4, the prices of coking coal and coke stopped falling and rebounded [20][24]. - Supply side: Some coal mines in Shanxi suspended or reduced production at the end of May and during the Dragon Boat Festival, and Shanxi entered a safety period with several safety accidents, raising market expectations of supply tightening. There were also rumors about Mongolia's coal tax increase and the new "Mineral Resources Law," but the authenticity of these rumors is doubtful, and the overall supply of coking coal is still relatively loose [21][24]. - Demand side: The output of molten iron declined at a high level, terminal steel demand entered the off - season, and there is an expectation of further decline in molten iron output. Coking enterprise profits shrank slightly, coke output declined slightly but remained stable overall. Downstream steel mills controlled inventory, and coking enterprises' raw material restocking enthusiasm declined [22][25]. - Outlook: The supply side is disturbed by rumors, and the basis converges when the valuation is low. The upward driving force is limited, and the rebound space of the market in the later period is expected to be limited, with the pressure level at the warehouse receipt level of 850 - 900 yuan/ton [23][25]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Aluminum - On June 5, aluminum remained at 20075 yuan/ton. Trump's trade protectionist measure of doubling import tariffs on steel and aluminum aggravated global trade tension, and the aluminum price declined from a high level recently [30][33]. - Supply side: The spot price of upstream alumina is firm, electrolytic aluminum enterprises' profits remain at a high level of fluctuation, and the import of electrolytic aluminum in China remains in a loss state, with limited supply growth room [31][33]. - Demand side: Downstream demand has strengthened to some extent. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand relationship of aluminum is in a tight balance, and the general direction of the aluminum price remains fluctuating. It is recommended to buy on dips [32][33]. 1.3.2 Aluminum Oxide - On June 5, aluminiium oxide decreased by 2.9% to 3063 yuan/ton. Spot price increase slows down, and the aluminium oxide market fluctuates [38][40]. - Since May 15, all operations of Shunda (SD) Mining in the AXIS mining area of Guinea have been suspended due to the revocation of the mining license [38][40]. - There is no shortage of ore in the short term. With the repair of the profit of the futures - spot market in the early stage, it is expected that the operating capacity will gradually recover and the inventory inflection point will be seen. The news of the revocation of the mining license in Guinea is repeated, and the market's game for the news is relatively intense [39][40]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for May came in at 48.3, falling below the critical threshold for the first time since October 2024, with an expected figure of 50.7 and a previous reading of 50.4 [45][46]. - The Caixin China Services PMI for May stood at 51.1, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to April, indicating that the pace of business expansion in the services sector has accelerated [45][46]. - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development have organized the selection of the 2025 central finance - supported urban renewal actions, with a total of 20 cities including Beijing and Tianjin planned to be supported [45]. 2.2 Industry News - The CSRC will step up efforts to study and formulate "Several Opinions on Further Strengthening the Protection of Minority Investors in the Capital Market" to ensure effective investor protection [46]. - The SFC of Hong Kong is considering introducing virtual asset derivatives trading for professional investors and will formulate robust risk management measures [46].
中国期货每日简报-20250606
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-06 05:25