华福固收：存单利率需要担忧吗

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - In June, banks face certain liability - side pressure, but it is generally controllable. While the pressure to renew certificates of deposit (CDs) increases, non - banking institutions have a need for re - allocation. With a relatively loose funding environment, the room for CD price hikes is limited. A 1Y CD with a yield above 1.7% already has investment value, and 1.75% may be the upper - limit. It is advisable to observe the CD prices in the second week of June and make allocations in the middle and late June [2][29] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Contents Situation of CD Maturity in June - The CD maturity scale in June soared to 4.17 trillion yuan, hitting a record high, increasing the pressure to renew CDs. A new round of deposit rate cuts started on May 20, and theoretically, deposit migration will further increase the banks' liability - side pressure, leading to market concerns about subsequent CD rates [2][6] - Medium - and short - term CDs have a large maturity volume, with 3M CDs having the largest maturity scale. Large - scale banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks all have a maturity volume exceeding 1 trillion yuan. Over half of the large - scale banks' maturing CDs are 3M, joint - stock banks have more 1Y maturing CDs, and city commercial banks have more 6M maturing CDs [6] Relationship between CD Issuance, Maturity, Net Financing, and CD Rates - Historically, there is a good positive correlation between CD issuance and maturity. The relationship between net financing and CD rates is weak, while the relationship between maturity/issuance and CD rates has a certain positive correlation, but not every increase in maturity and issuance leads to a significant rise in CD rates [2][14] Impact of Deposit Migration on CD Rates - There have been four rounds of deposit migration since 2024. Except for April 2024, large - scale banks' deposit levels returned to the pre - migration state within one month after the other three rounds of deposit migration, and these four rounds did not cause a significant increase in CD rates, indicating that simply considering the impact of deposit migration on banks' liability - side is one - sided [2][23] Analysis of Banks' Funding Sources - Currently in a new round of deposit rate cuts, large - scale banks' deposit migration is still obvious in the short term, increasing the liability - side pressure to some extent. However, there are positive signals: as of June 4, the banks' net lending balance has recovered to about 4 trillion yuan, a significant increase from the annual low of about 1.5 trillion yuan; the central bank has shown obvious care for the funding environment after a series of financial policies, and the funding environment is expected to remain relatively loose in June; the net withdrawal of repurchase agreements in June may also indicate that the banks' liability - side pressure is controllable [2][24] Analysis of Banks' Funding Utilization - In terms of credit lending, the bill rates were stable in May, indicating good credit demand. A 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instrument is likely to be launched in June, and several major financial policies will be announced during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, which is expected to stimulate credit in June. In terms of bond investment, the government bond issuance in June is expected to be 2.58 - 2.82 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 1.22 - 1.46 trillion yuan. Although the government bond payment intensity remains high, the impact is controllable due to the central bank's liquidity support and June being a large fiscal expenditure month [2][25]