光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250606

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Urea: Stronger oscillation [1] - Soda Ash: Stronger [1] - Glass: Stronger oscillation [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea market has no obvious positive drivers, but subsequent demand is expected to provide some support. The urea futures price is expected to rebound after breaking through the low point of the past five months [1]. - Soda ash supply recovers, demand is weakly stable, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The soda ash futures price is expected to maintain a stronger state in the short - term, but the market will continue to face pressure in the long - term [1]. - The glass supply and demand situation has not substantially improved, but news of production restrictions, rising coal prices, and improved macro - trade environment will boost the futures market. The glass futures price is expected to be mainly in a stronger oscillation [1]. Group 3: Market Information Summary Urea - On June 5, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 6357, a decrease of 52 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 0 [3]. - On June 5, the daily output of the urea industry was 200,700 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 25,700 tons from the same period last year. The current start - up rate was 87.27%, a 6.01 - percentage - point increase from 81.26% in the same period last year [3]. - As of June 4, 2025, the domestic urea enterprise inventory was 1.0354 million tons, an increase of 54,800 tons or 5.59% from last week [3]. Soda Ash and Glass - On June 5, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 3482, an increase of 142 from the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 2539; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - As of the week of June 5, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 80.76%, a 2.19 - percentage - point increase week - on - week; the soda ash output was 704,100 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons or 2.78% week - on - week [5]. - As of June 5, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.627 million tons, an increase of 2,700 tons or 0.17% from last Thursday [5]. - As of June 5, the average price of the float glass market was 1,207 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton day - on - day; the daily output of the industry was 156,800 tons, unchanged day - on - day [5]. - As of June 5, the total inventory of domestic float glass enterprises was 69.754 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.092 million weight boxes or 3.09% month - on - month, and an increase of 20.15% year - on - year. The inventory days were 31.3 days, an increase of 0.9 days from last week [6] Group 4: Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen [26] - Zhang Xiaojin focuses on sugar industry research [26] - Zhang Linglu is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass [26] - Sun Chengzhen is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [26]