Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 5, polysilicon and industrial silicon both showed a weak and volatile trend. The main polysilicon contract 2507 closed at 34,540 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.27%, and the position decreased by 2,071 lots to 65,802 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type polysilicon remained stable at 36,500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium over the main contract expanding to 1,960 yuan/ton. The main industrial silicon contract 2507 closed at 7,135 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.56%, and the position decreased by 3,637 lots to 184,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 8,777 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 460 yuan/ton [2]. - The reduction of electricity prices during the wet season in the southwest has led to the resumption of production, and large factories in the northwest will not cut production as in previous years. Downstream procurement has significantly decreased. It is expected that the lower support for industrial silicon comes from the cash cost line of large factories in Xinjiang, and the upper pressure stems from high inventory and increasing supply pressure. The polysilicon self - discipline meeting will be held again in June. In addition to spontaneous production cuts by enterprises, under the pressure of collapsing demand, the industry is expected to clarify an expanded production limit quota. For industrial silicon, a short - selling strategy on rallies can be maintained under marginal pressure. For polysilicon, pay attention to production cut news. The one - sided decline of near - month contracts is limited due to warehouse receipt restrictions, and fluctuations will intensify [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main and near - month contracts decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 7,140 yuan/ton. Among the 421 silicon spot prices, the prices in some regions such as the East China, Tianjin Port, and Xinjiang decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, while most 553 silicon spot prices remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price was 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded by 35 yuan to 460 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 494 to 61,309, and the weekly inventory in various ports and factories decreased, with the total social inventory decreasing by 11,800 tons to 409,100 tons [3]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 515 yuan/ton to 34,540 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 1,875 yuan/ton to 36,115 yuan/ton. The polysilicon spot prices remained stable, with the current lowest deliverable price at 36,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanding by 515 yuan to 1,960 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 110 to 2,030. The weekly inventory in the GFE increased by 13,000 tons to 14,100 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 268,000 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 268,000 tons [3]. - Downstream: The prices of silicon wafers (single - crystal M10/G12) and battery cells (single - crystal M10/G12) remained unchanged [3]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and clean coal prices [4][5][7][10]. 2.2 Downstream Finished Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][17]. 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [18][21]. 2.4 Cost - Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [24][25][30]. 3. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, the current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst, with over a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, are also members of the team [32][33].
光大期货工业硅日报-20250606
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-06-06 06:17