黑色商品日报-20250606

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 2959 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. Spot prices fell slightly, and trading volume declined. Rebar production continued to fall, inventory decline narrowed, and apparent demand dropped. Considering the one - day less workweek, the data was neutral. With the entry into the consumption off - season, the market has a weak expectation for future supply and demand. However, the phone call between the leaders of China and the US may ease trade - war sentiment and boost market risk appetite. Short - term rebar futures are expected to trade in a narrow range [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures contract i2509 closed at 701 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. Port spot prices were mixed. Australian shipments decreased from a high level, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries rebounded from a low level. Iron ore shipments globally increased. Iron - making output continued to decline. With 47 - port and steel - mill imported ore inventories decreasing, the price is expected to trade sideways [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures contract 2509 closed at 757 yuan/ton, down 1.43%. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Some coal mines had signs of shutdown and production restrictions due to safety incidents, and there was a slight increase in procurement in the spot trading link, but some coal mines still had high inventories. The coke market has a downward expectation, and steel mills' demand for coking coal is weak. Short - term coking coal futures are expected to trade sideways [1]. - Coke: The coke futures contract 2509 closed at 1342 yuan/ton, down 1.86%. Port spot prices fell. Steel mills initiated the third round of price cuts for coke. After two rounds of price cuts, coking enterprises faced production losses, and production enthusiasm weakened. Steel - mill demand for coke decreased as steel production declined. Short - term coke futures are expected to trade sideways [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated narrowly, with the main contract closing at 5482 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon was stable. The manganese silicon price was mainly affected by the overall black - commodity sector sentiment but lacked sustainable support. Terminal demand was weak, and supply reduction support was limited. It is expected to follow the black - commodity sector fluctuations [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price trended weaker, with the main contract closing at 5196 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. Spot prices were stable. Terminal demand was weak, market sentiment needed boosting, and cost support was weak. Although weekly production has dropped to a low level in recent years, it has not supported the price. It is expected to trade weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures price declined, and so did spot prices and trading volume. Production, inventory, and apparent demand all showed a downward trend. Market sentiment was affected by the consumption off - season and international trade relations [1]. - Iron Ore: Futures price dropped, and port spot prices were mixed. Supply increased, demand decreased, and inventory declined. The price is expected to be range - bound [1]. - Coking Coal: Futures price fell, and some spot prices decreased. Supply was affected by safety incidents, and demand was weak due to the coke market's downward expectation [1]. - Coke: Futures price declined, and port spot prices dropped. Steel mills' price cuts and weakening demand from the steel sector led to a production slowdown in coking enterprises [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the market price was stable. It was mainly driven by sector sentiment, with weak terminal demand and limited supply - reduction support [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Futures price trended weaker, and spot prices were stable. Weak terminal demand, low market sentiment, and limited cost support led to a weak outlook [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: For various black commodities, contract spreads such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month showed different changes, including increases and decreases [4]. - Basis: The basis of different contracts for each commodity also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - Spot Prices: Spot prices of different regions and varieties of black commodities changed, including price drops and stability [4]. - Profit and Spreads: The profit of different steel - making processes (such as rebar) and cross - commodity spreads (e.g., roll - rebar spread) showed various changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: Charts showed the historical closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][11][13][16]. - Main Contract Basis: Charts presented the historical basis of main contracts for different black commodities [18][19][22][24]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts showed the historical spreads of different inter - period contracts for each black commodity [26][30][32][34][35][38]. - Cross - commodity Contract Spreads: Charts displayed the historical spreads of cross - commodity contracts such as roll - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [40][41][42][44]. - Rebar Profit: Charts showed the historical profits of rebar in different production processes (main - contract surface profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) [45][46][48]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: The assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: The director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal research [52]. - Liu Xi: A black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial - chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: A black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [53].