交通运输行业2025年中期投资策略之【航空行业】：航空供给低增时代需求驱动票价上行

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][4] Core Insights - The report highlights a long-term logic for a "super cycle" in the Chinese aviation industry, driven by sustained demand and a low growth supply environment [2][4] - The demand for air travel is expected to continue its steady growth due to the ongoing aviation population dividend, while supply is entering a low growth phase [2][4] - The report anticipates a strategic positioning at low levels, recommending an increase in holdings in the aviation sector [2][4] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is primarily influenced by internal factors, with external factors also playing a role, leading to a low growth phase in supply [4] - Demand is expected to remain robust, supported by the ongoing aviation population dividend, with a gradual recovery in supply and demand anticipated from 2023 to 2024 [4] Pricing and Profitability - The report notes that ticket prices have largely become market-driven during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with expectations for a rise in profitability as demand continues to grow [4] - It is projected that from 2025 to 2026, ticket prices will increase while oil prices decrease, accelerating the recovery of profitability for airlines [4] Strategic Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of a long-term perspective in aviation, suggesting that airlines should be prioritized for investment, particularly those with high-quality networks [4] - Specific airlines recommended for increased holdings include China National Aviation, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [4][171]