中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨跌互现，氧化铝跌幅居前-20250606

Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: US economic data in May, including ADP employment growth, ISM manufacturing, and services PMI, were below expectations and previous values. The OECD cut the US economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.6%. The Fed's "Beige Book" indicated a slight decline in economic activity and a "somewhat pessimistic and uncertain" outlook. However, consumer confidence improved after the tariff truce, with increased spending intentions and lower inflation expectations [5]. - Domestic macro: Amid the "rush export/trans - shipment" and "two new" policies, manufacturing enterprises' profits and PMI showed resilience. China's May Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3, lower than expected. From January to April, industrial enterprise profits were 21170.2 billion yuan, up 1.4% year - on - year. The May manufacturing PMI rebounded due to trade friction easing and policy support [5]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, Trump's tariffs won't solve the US deficit problem. In China, stable - growth policies focus on existing resources. Bonds are worth allocating after the capital pressure eases, while stocks and commodities may range - bound in the short term [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - Financial markets: Index futures showed different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly changes. For example, the CSI 300 futures had a daily increase of 0.25%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.03%. Interest rates, foreign exchange, and other financial indicators also had their respective fluctuations [2]. - Domestic commodities: Most commodities showed varying degrees of price changes. Alumina had a significant daily decline of 3.92%, while gold had a daily increase of 0.17%. Different sectors such as shipping, precious metals, and energy had their own trends [2]. - Overseas commodities: NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.95% daily, and COMEX gold increased by 0.61% daily. Various overseas commodities in energy, precious metals, and agriculture also had different performance [2]. 2. Macro Analysis - Overseas: US economic data was weak in May, but consumer confidence improved. The OECD cut the global and US growth forecasts, and the Fed warned of economic uncertainties [5]. - Domestic: Manufacturing showed resilience under policies. May's manufacturing PMI rebounded, and industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year from January to April [5]. 3. Asset Views - Overall: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic: Bonds are worth allocating after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities may range - bound in the short term, focusing on low - valuation and policy - driven stocks [5]. 4. Viewpoint Highlights - Macro: Overseas, stagflation trading cools down; in China, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented [7]. - Financial: Stock index futures have rising gaming sentiment but also concerns; index options have a slightly warm sentiment; treasury bond futures may be affected by capital and policy expectations [7]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver may adjust short - term due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [7]. - Shipping: The shipping market's sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the loading rate increase in June [7]. - Black building materials: Coal and coke supply contraction expectations increase, and black prices generally rebound, but different varieties have different trends [7]. - Non - ferrous metals and new materials: De - stocking slows down, and non - ferrous metals maintain a volatile trend [7]. - Energy and chemicals: Demand growth is lower than expected, and the sector's performance is weak, with different trends for each variety [9]. - Agriculture: Sino - US negotiations have a positive impact on cotton prices, and different agricultural products have their own market situations [9].