铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250606

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The call between Chinese and US leaders briefly boosted market risk appetite, but the intensifying internal division in the US may lead to more market volatility in June. Attention should be paid to the non - farm payroll data to assess the impact of tariff policies on the US economy [2]. - In the domestic market, the A - share risk appetite continued to rise, the bond market weakened, and the domestic policy may be in a vacuum period in June with the economy in a weak recovery [3]. - The silver price is expected to continue its catch - up trend, the copper price is expected to oscillate upward, the aluminum price will remain under pressure and oscillate, the alumina price will continue to oscillate, the zinc price will oscillate and converge, the lead price will have a narrow - range oscillation, the tin price will oscillate strongly, the industrial silicon price will oscillate weakly at a low level, the lithium carbonate price difference has a correction expectation, the nickel price will oscillate, the oil price may rebound in the short - term but has a long - term downward pressure, the steel price will oscillate, the iron ore price will oscillate, the soybean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate strongly, and the palm oil price will oscillate [4][7][9][11][12][13][15][17][18][22][23][24][26][28][30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The call between Chinese and US leaders focused on trade and key mineral disputes, and reached a consensus on continued consultations. The internal division in the US intensified, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected [2]. - Domestic: The A - share risk appetite continued to rise, the bond market weakened, and the central bank announced a 10000 - billion - yuan outright reverse - repurchase operation [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold: The gold futures price slightly declined due to the signal of eased trade tensions from the Sino - US leaders' call [4]. - Silver: The international silver price rose strongly by 3.3%, breaking through the strong resistance level of $35 per ounce. It has a strong catch - up demand and the catch - up logic is expected to continue [4][6]. 3.3 Base Metals - Copper: The Shanghai copper main contract continued to oscillate strongly, and the London copper steadily rose. The European Central Bank cut interest rates, and the supply - side disturbances continued to drive the copper price upward [7][8]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed down slightly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to decline, but the consumption side was weak. The aluminum price remained under pressure and oscillated [9][10]. - Alumina: The alumina futures main contract fell by 2.9%. The market was both bullish and bearish, and the price continued to oscillate [11]. - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated narrowly. The downstream consumption weakened marginally, and the inventory increased slightly. The zinc price oscillated and converged [12]. - Lead: The Shanghai lead main contract oscillated horizontally. The inventory continued to increase, and the lead price had a narrow - range oscillation with insufficient one - way driving force [13]. - Tin: The Shanghai tin main contract rose after a night - session gap - up. The London tin continued to rise, driving the Shanghai tin to break through the moving - average pressure. The tin price was expected to oscillate strongly [14][15]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon main contract continued to fall. The supply - side rebound was limited, and the demand was weak. The price oscillated weakly at a low level [16][17]. 3.4 Energy Metals - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated, and the spot price fell. The price difference had a correction expectation, and the far - month short positions needed to be cautious [18][19]. - Nickel: The nickel price oscillated. The ore shortage situation was expected to improve, and the short - term nickel price would oscillate [21][22]. 3.5 Energy - Crude Oil: The crude oil price was temporarily stable. The geopolitical situation was tense, and the OPEC + was expected to increase production in July and August. The oil price may rebound in the short - term but had a long - term downward pressure [23]. 3.6 Steel - Steel: The steel futures rebounded. The steel supply and demand were both weak, and the steel price was expected to oscillate [24][25]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The market sentiment was boosted by the Sino - US leaders' call, and the iron ore price was expected to oscillate [26]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and rose. The market sentiment improved, and the short - term prices were expected to oscillate strongly [27][28]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil price oscillated. The MPOA data showed a moderate increase in the Malaysian palm oil production, and the short - term price was expected to oscillate [29][30].