铁矿石：宏观预期回暖，矿价跟随反弹

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term macro expectations have warmed up, and the rebound of carbon elements has driven the sector to strengthen. Iron ore's short - term trading focus tends to trade strong reality + weak expectations. Demand has basically peaked but the decline slope is low, and the supply side continues to rise but may remain year - on - year reduced. It is expected that iron ore will remain relatively strong in the short term. The short - term coking coal price has stabilized and rebounded, and market sentiment has warmed up, but chasing long positions is not recommended [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The current shipment of foreign iron ore has increased month - on - month, with significant increases in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions, but the volume of Australian shipments to China has decreased month - on - month. June is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady increase in shipments, with the marginal support from the supply side weakening [3] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from its peak but remains at a high level. Hot metal production has declined for four consecutive weeks, but the decline rate has narrowed. The current profitability of steel mills is relatively high, and it is expected that hot metal production will show an overall downward trend from a high level but with a gentle slope. High demand supports prices [3] Inventory - Steel mills currently maintain low - inventory management, and the inventory - to - sales ratio has decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The domestic demand level is still relatively high, and port inventories have continued to decline in the short term. With the increase in arrivals, port inventories are expected to accumulate slightly in the later stage [3]