宏观情绪提振，价格延续?幅回暖态势

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillating". Specific ratings for each variety are as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [7] - Iron ore: Oscillating [7] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [7] - Coke: Oscillating weakly [7] - Coking coal: Oscillating weakly [11] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [12] - Soda ash: Oscillating weakly [12] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [13] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [14] 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the macro - positive sentiment and coking coal news catalyzed a strong rebound after the previous price decline. The steel inventory is in a destocking state, and the iron ore supply - demand is in a tight balance, leading to more optimistic voices in the market. However, the domestic construction and manufacturing industries are about to enter the off - season, and the "rush to export" is also under - performing, with limited demand growth. So the rebound height is still limited, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy guidance [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Supply: Overseas incremental release is lower than expected, with a year - on - year decline in cumulative shipments throughout the year, and the new project ramp - up has slowed down, reducing the annual increment [2]. - Demand: Steel mills' profitability is stable, and hot metal production has slightly decreased, expected to remain at a high level in the short term. Under the tight supply - demand balance, the inventory accumulation pressure before September is small, and the real supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - Coking Coal - Supply: Although there are expectations of supply tightening due to safety accidents in Shanxi and the news of Mongolia's coal export tariff increase, currently, most coal mines in the production area are operating normally, and the coking coal output remains high. The news of Mongolia's export tax rate change is unconfirmed, and the port clearance continues at a high level, so the overall supply is still loose [3]. - Demand: Coke production remains high but is expected to decline due to increased inventory pressure and shrinking coking profits. During the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material replenishment decreases, increasing the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal. Overall, the coking coal supply - demand remains loose, and the price lacks upward momentum [3]. - Coke: Steel mills have initiated the third round of price cuts. The supply is stable, but the demand is weakening due to the decline in hot metal production and the approaching off - season of steel consumption. With the continuous decline of coking coal prices and weakening demand, the coke price is expected to be weak in the short term [10]. Alloys - Silicomanganese: The market sentiment is cautious. The cost of manganese ore is under pressure as the south32 Australian ore is arriving at the port this week. The domestic market has not reacted significantly to Gabon's ban on manganese ore exports starting in 2029. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weak due to the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply has increased slightly, and the downstream is in the off - season with a strong willingness to destock. The demand is expected to weaken further, and the cost may still have a negative impact. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [14]. Glass - Demand: In the off - season, the demand is declining, and the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year. - Supply: There are both cold - repair and restart plans, and the supply pressure remains. The upstream inventory is accumulating, and the mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price cuts of Hubei manufacturers [5]. Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply situation remains unchanged, and the maintenance is gradually resuming. - Demand: The heavy - soda demand is expected to be mainly for rigid procurement, and the growth of photovoltaic glass daily melting may not be sustainable. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [5].