滴滴出行25Q1财报点评：国内出行利润超预期，看好长期稳健增长及盈利空间

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Didi Chuxing [3] Core Views - Didi Chuxing's Q1 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with revenue of 53.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.9 billion yuan, up 115% year-on-year. The adjusted EBITA margin for the Chinese ride-hailing segment was 4%, surpassing the company's annual guidance [1][4] - The report expresses confidence in Didi's long-term growth potential and profitability in the ride-sharing market, highlighting the company's solid market share and the expected steady growth in demand for ride-hailing services [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023: 192.38 billion yuan - 2024: 206.80 billion yuan (7% growth) - 2025E: 222.37 billion yuan (8% growth) - 2026E: 240.21 billion yuan (8% growth) - 2027E: 259.01 billion yuan (8% growth) [2][7] - Adjusted EBITA: - 2023: -2.16 billion yuan - 2024: 2.20 billion yuan - 2025E: 7.27 billion yuan (231% growth) - 2026E: 11.21 billion yuan (54% growth) - 2027E: 15.36 billion yuan (37% growth) [2][7] - Adjusted Net Profit: - 2023: 620 million yuan - 2024: 5.61 billion yuan (804% growth) - 2025E: 8.23 billion yuan (47% growth) - 2026E: 11.28 billion yuan (37% growth) - 2027E: 14.88 billion yuan (32% growth) [2][7] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: -0.10 yuan - 2024: 0.26 yuan - 2025E: 1.99 yuan - 2026E: 3.08 yuan - 2027E: 4.44 yuan [2][8] Market Performance - The current stock price is $4.95, with a total market capitalization of $22.3 billion [3] - The stock has shown a performance of -7.6% over the past month, 15.0% over the past six months, and 84.0% over the past year [4] Business Segment Insights - Domestic Ride-Hailing: - GTV (Gross Transaction Value) for Q1 2025 was 78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, with a total of 3.26 billion orders, up 10.3% year-on-year. The average selling price (ASP) was approximately 24 yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.9% year-on-year [4] - International Business: - GTV for Q1 2025 was 23.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% (27.9% at constant exchange rates), with 989 million orders, up 24.9% year-on-year. The international business is expected to achieve profitability in 2025 [4] Share Buyback Program - Didi's board approved a new share buyback plan, allowing for the repurchase of up to $2 billion worth of shares within 24 months, reflecting management's confidence in the company's future [4]