Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.2% from the current closing price of HKD 72.30 [4][14]. Core Insights - The early clinical data for IBI363 in lung cancer is encouraging, revealing a significant market opportunity. The target market for IBI363 is characterized as a "blue ocean" due to limited existing treatment options for first-line I/O resistant NSCLC patients [2][7]. - The report projects that IBI363 could achieve peak sales of approximately USD 1.5 billion by 2028, based on a conservative estimate of capturing around 10% of the post-PD-(L)1 treatment market with a 40% success rate [7][10]. - The financial forecasts show substantial revenue growth, with expected revenues increasing from RMB 6,206 million in 2023 to RMB 17,071 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.2% from 2023 to 2024 and 20.0% from 2026 to 2027 [3][15]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 6,206 million in 2023, RMB 9,422 million in 2024, RMB 11,782 million in 2025, RMB 14,231 million in 2026, and RMB 17,071 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.2%, 51.8%, 25.1%, 20.8%, and 20.0% respectively [3][15]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching RMB 751 million, and further increasing to RMB 3,242 million by 2027 [3][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from a loss of RMB 0.66 in 2023 to a profit of RMB 1.97 by 2027 [3][15]. Clinical Data Highlights - IBI363 demonstrated an overall response rate (ORR) of 26-37% in squamous NSCLC patients, with a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 5.5-9.3 months and a median overall survival (OS) exceeding 15.3 months [7][8]. - In the EGFR wild-type non-squamous NSCLC cohort, the ORR was 24% with a median PFS of 5.6 months [7][9]. - The safety profile of IBI363 is reported to be manageable, with the most common grade 3 adverse events being joint pain and rash [7].
信达生物（01801）：IBI363肺癌早期数据令人鼓舞，蓝海市场待挖掘；上调目标价