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新世纪期货交易提示(2025-6-6)-20250606
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-06-06 08:26

Group 1: Iron Ore - The total global iron ore shipments increased this period, with mainstream mines' shipments steadily rising. Iron - making molten iron production decreased by 0.1 million tons to 2.418 million tons, dropping for four consecutive weeks, and the supply - demand situation is gradually loosening. Port inventories are still decreasing, and it's necessary to monitor the continuous decline of molten iron production. Trump raised steel tariffs to 50%, making the capital and sentiment bearish. The market's reaction to tariffs and the progress of production cuts should be watched. In the short term, it shows a rebound driven by coal and coke. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and add positions during emotional rebounds [2]. Group 2: Coal and Coke - There are rumors that Mongolia will impose a 20% resource tax on coal exports, and some coal mines in China's Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions have stopped or reduced production due to completing monthly production tasks, causing the coal - coke futures to rise significantly. However, coking coal production is at a high level, downstream replenishment motivation is weak, and the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines has reached a record high. With the decline of molten iron production and the continuous increase of coking coal supply, the fundamentals are hard to improve. For coke, as coking coal prices fall, coking enterprises' costs decrease, and most are in a profitable state. Steel mills have initiated the third round of price cuts for coking enterprises, which will shrink their profits. With the arrival of the high - temperature and plum - rain season, downstream demand weakens, steel mills control production more, and coking enterprises' inventory pressure increases. The overall inventory of coke has increased month - on - month, and the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. Coal and coke generally follow the trend of finished products [2]. Group 3: Rebar - Trump raised steel tariffs to 50%, weakening the sentiment in the black market. Steel mills' profits are still good, and blast furnaces under maintenance are resuming production, so supply remains high. Construction demand is affected by capital and the plum - rain season, and terminal demand is poor. External demand for exports has been over - consumed in advance, and domestic demand in the manufacturing industries such as automobiles and home appliances has declined seasonally. Real estate investment has declined across the board, and overall demand is unlikely to show an off - season increase. With no increase in annual total demand, a pattern of high - early and low - late will form. The total steel inventory is continuously decreasing, but the decline has slowed down. In June, there will be dual pressures of high production and weak off - season demand, coupled with the negative macro sentiment caused by increased steel tariffs. Overall, rebar prices are more likely to fall than rise [2]. Group 4: Glass - There is no substantial positive news for the glass fundamentals, but the futures market has rebounded due to environmental production restrictions. The operating rate of the float glass industry is 76.01%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68%. The average capacity utilization rate is 78.62%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points compared to the 22nd, and daily production has increased by 0.51% to 157,500 tons, reaching a five - week high. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises has decreased by 0.46% month - on - month to 67.769 million heavy cases, falling from a two - month high for the first time. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, the housing completion area has decreased by 28.2% year - on - year, and glass demand is difficult to increase significantly. As it transitions from the peak season to the off - season, there is a lack of upward momentum in the fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand [2]. Group 5: Financial Futures and Bonds - In the previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.23%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.05%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.54%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.72%. Funds flowed into the Internet and communication equipment sectors, and out of the daily chemical and soft drink sectors. After the Geneva talks, China has implemented the agreement seriously, and the US should cancel negative measures against China. The two sides should strengthen exchanges in various fields. China's Caixin Services PMI in May was 51.1, up 0.4 percentage points from April, indicating an accelerated expansion of the service industry. New service orders increased in May, the employment index reached a six - month high, and market confidence improved slightly, but enterprises' profitability is under pressure. The manufacturing PMI and export data reflect China's economic resilience, and market risk - aversion sentiment has eased. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. For bonds, the yield of the 10 - year Chinese government bond remained flat, FR007 decreased by 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained unchanged. The central bank conducted 126.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 5, with an operating rate of 1.40%. A total of 266 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 139.5 billion yuan. Market interest rates are consolidating, and government bonds are rebounding slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in government bonds lightly [2][4]. Group 6: Precious Metals - In the context of a high - interest - rate environment and global restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for six consecutive months since November last year. The logic driving the current gold price increase has not completely reversed. The Fed's interest - rate policy and tariff policy may be short - term disturbing factors. It is expected that this year's interest - rate policy will be more cautious, and changes in tariff policy and geopolitical conflicts will dominate market risk - aversion sentiment. According to the latest US data, the labor market is relatively strong, inflation data has slowed down, but inflation may rise again under the influence of tariffs. In the short term, trade tensions have eased, risk - aversion demand has weakened, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the non - farm payroll data. Gold is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Silver is expected to fluctuate strongly [4][6]. Group 7: Pulp and Logs - The spot market price of pulp was stable in the previous trading day. The latest FOB price of softwood pulp decreased by $30 to $740 per ton, and the latest FOB price of hardwood pulp was not quoted. The decline in cost prices weakens the support for pulp prices. The profitability of the paper - making industry is at a low level, paper mills' inventories are accumulating, and their acceptance of high - price pulp is low. Demand has entered the off - season, which is negative for pulp prices. Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The average daily shipment volume of logs at ports last week was 62,800 cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 700 cubic meters. The downstream has entered the off - season, but the easing of exports may make up for part of the off - season gap. It is expected that the average daily shipment volume will remain at around 60,000 cubic meters. The volume of logs shipped from New Zealand to China in March was 1.659 million cubic meters, a 32% increase from the previous month. New Zealand has started to reduce production, and log shipments are decreasing. It is expected that the volume of logs arriving in China will start to decrease. The expected arrival volume this week is 339,000 cubic meters, a 21% month - on - month decrease. As of last week, the log inventory at ports was 3.41 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 cubic meters. The spot market price is stable. In the short term, the spot market price is stable, demand has improved month - on - month, the arrival volume has increased month - on - month but is lower than the average level, and supply pressure has eased. The fundamentals of logs have improved, and log prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. Group 8: Oils and Fats - Southeast Asian palm oil is in a seasonal production - increasing cycle. Although the export demand for Malaysian palm oil is strong, due to increased production, Malaysian palm oil inventories are expected to rise for the third consecutive month, possibly reaching the highest level since September last year. Recently, the cost - effectiveness of palm oil has recovered, and India's reduction of import tariffs will increase import demand, providing support for palm oil prices. The B40 policy in Indonesia is undecided, and attention should be paid to changes in Malaysian palm oil production and inventories. China's rapeseed oil inventory is at a multi - year high, and the easing of China - Canada relations is releasing the original supply pressure in the rapeseed oil market. South American soybeans have achieved a record harvest. Domestic soybean oil inventory is increasing rapidly due to a large amount of South American soybeans arriving in China and high - pressure oil - pressing by oil mills. Although domestic palm oil inventory is low, it is suppressed by the production - increasing cycle of palm oil in the producing areas. Currently, oils and fats are in the traditional off - season for consumption. Oils and fats are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6][8]. Group 9: Meal and Grains - The phone call between Chinese and US leaders has boosted the overall grain market. The drought in the US Midwest is gradually easing, but some weather forecasts indicate that warm and dry weather may occur in mid - June, which may threaten newly - sown soybeans. The inventory of new - crop US soybeans may become even tighter, leaving less room for error for US soybeans, whose sown area is already expected to decline. Brazilian soybeans are having a bumper harvest and accelerating exports, and the yield per unit of Argentine soybeans is expected to exceed expectations, but the harvesting work is delayed. In June, the volume of soybeans arriving in China will surge by about 11 million tons, and customs clearance has accelerated recently. The soybean supply situation has become looser, the operating rate of oil mills has generally recovered to over 50%, and the inventory of soybean meal is increasing. Demand is rigid. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the weather in North America, Brazilian logistics delays, and the arrival of soybeans [8]. Group 10: Livestock - The price of live pigs has shown a volatile pattern of first falling, then rising, and then falling again, with the weekly average price showing a slight decline. Last week, the average trading price of ternary live pigs was 14.46 yuan per kilogram, a 0.21% decrease, and the price fluctuated between 14.28 - 14.54 yuan per kilogram. On the supply side, the average trading weight of live pigs across the country has decreased slightly, reflecting an adjustment in the market's slaughter rhythm. On the demand side, the operating rate of key slaughtering enterprises has increased, indicating a short - term recovery in slaughter demand. In terms of breeding profits, the average profit per head in the self - breeding and self - raising model across the country is 179.50 yuan, a slight decrease of 3.09 yuan per head from the previous period; the theoretical profit per head from raising piglets to slaughter has shown an upward trend, with an average of 164.95 yuan per head, a month - on - month increase of 1.86 yuan per head. It is expected that the price of the national live - pig market may rise first and then fall next week. The slaughter volume of breeders may shrink seasonally at the end of the month, which will support the market price. However, as June arrives, the slaughter volume of live pigs is expected to gradually recover, and market supply pressure may reappear. Currently, the price difference between standard pigs and fat pigs is continuously narrowing, which significantly reduces breeders' enthusiasm for holding back pigs for weight gain, thereby accelerating the slaughter of second - fattened pigs. Looking forward to the June market, considering the gradually emerging seasonal supply pressure, the spot market generally expects pig prices to still have room to fall, which will continue to suppress the futures market, causing live - pig futures prices to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [8]. Group 11: Rubber - Affected by continuous rainfall, rubber - tapping operations in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas have been hindered, and the tight supply of raw materials has pushed up procurement prices. In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports reached 523,200 tons, a 11.93% month - on - month decrease but a 41.64% year - on - year increase. From January to April this year, the cumulative import volume was 2.2089 million tons, a 24.25% increase from the same period last year, indicating that medium - and long - term supply is still relatively abundant. Currently, the market shows a pattern of short - term supply tightness and medium - and long - term supply looseness. The operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points but 6.35 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of all - steel tires is 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points and a 4.11 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. Most enterprises maintain stable production, some increase production slightly due to foreign trade orders, but inventory pressure continues to restrict production capacity release, and some enterprises actively reduce production to control inventory. Terminal demand improvement is limited, enterprises' sales are weak, finished - product inventories are accumulating, and the inventory - reduction progress is slow. Considering inventory pressure and end - of - month maintenance plans, it is expected that the industry's operating rate may decline slightly. China's natural rubber social inventory is 1.342 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons, a 0.96% decrease. China's total social inventory of dark - colored rubber is 818,000 tons, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased by 0.7%. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly in the next period. According to market supply - demand analysis, the general trade inventory in Qingdao may decrease by about 5,000 tons. It is expected that the natural rubber market may remain range - bound in June. Continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas still restricts short - term rubber - tapping progress, but the market's expectation of supply recovery after the rainy season is increasing. Although tire operating rates are gradually recovering, terminal consumption has not shown substantial improvement. Without a clear one - way driving force, rubber prices will continue to be dominated by macro sentiment and policy orientation. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies such as state - reserve purchases on the market [10]. Group 12: PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF - Geopolitical tensions have eased locally, and oil prices may fluctuate within a narrow range. Recently, many domestic and foreign PX plants have restarted or increased their loads, increasing supply. At the same time, the strong sentiment of polyester production cuts has affected PX demand expectations. However, the supply - demand situation in the near - term is still tight, and the PXN spread still has support. PX prices are expected to fluctuate weakly following oil prices. For PTA, its supply - demand situation is okay. After continuous inventory reduction, the liquidity of the current spot market is tight, and the spot basis is strong. However, downstream polyester factories are reducing production, and the spot price will fluctuate within a range following the cost side, with the spot basis remaining strong. Attention should be paid to changes in polyester plants. For MEG, the arrival volume has been low recently, port shipping efficiency is good, and port inventories decreased significantly last week. In June, the available spot for circulation is still tight, and the spot basis will remain strong. The medium - and short - term supply - demand structure of MEG is good, which supports MEG prices. Attention should be paid to changes in polyester loads. For PR, macro - positive factors are boosting the commodity market, raw materials have strong support, and the industry's processing fee is low. Local supply is tight, and polyester bottle - chip prices are expected to rise, but the increase will be limited considering downstream follow - up. For PF, international oil prices have risen, but downstream orders are insufficient, and polyester plants are under great pressure to reduce production. It is expected that the polyester staple - fiber market will fluctuate and consolidate today [10].