GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-06-06 07:40Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2][4] Core Insights - The report highlights a long-term logic for a "super cycle" in the Chinese aviation industry, driven by sustained demand and a low growth supply environment. The report suggests that the industry is entering a phase of low supply growth while demand continues to grow steadily [2][4] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in supply and demand from 2023 to 2024, with ticket prices expected to rise as demand strengthens. By 2025-2026, the report predicts further improvements in supply-demand dynamics, leading to increased profitability for airlines [4][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic positioning during this low growth phase, recommending an overweight position in high-quality airline networks such as China National Aviation, Spring Airlines, and others [4][9] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the supply side is entering a low growth era, influenced by internal factors such as airspace constraints and a slowdown in fleet expansion plans by airlines. External factors include slow recovery in aircraft manufacturing post-pandemic [4][9] - Demand is expected to remain robust, driven by a growing aviation population and the release of pent-up demand, transitioning into a new normal by 2023-2024 [4][9] Pricing and Profitability - The report indicates that ticket prices have become largely market-driven, with expectations for price increases as demand recovers. The combination of rising ticket prices and declining oil prices is projected to accelerate profitability recovery for airlines [4][9] - The report forecasts that by 2025, airlines will experience a significant recovery in profitability, with expectations for improved performance during peak travel seasons [4][9] Strategic Recommendations - The report advises investors to focus on long-term opportunities in the aviation sector, particularly in high-quality airline networks. It recommends an overweight position in specific airlines such as China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [4][9]