集运日报：CMA下调线上6月中下旬运价，多空博弈越激烈，盘面大幅震荡，风险偏好者可考虑轻仓逢高试空-20250606

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report analyzes the container shipping market, highlighting factors such as CMA's price cut, fluctuations in freight rate indices, the impact of the US court ruling on the Trump administration, and the need to monitor multiple factors including spot freight rates, tariff policies, and the final ruling result. It also provides short - term, arbitrage, and long - term trading strategies [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Freight Rate Indices - On June 2, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1252.82 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1718.11 points, down 0.1% [3]. - On May 30, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1676.25 points, up 51.55% from the previous period; the European route was 1067.59 points, up 36.25%; the US West route was 3585.23 points, up 89.23% [3]. - On May 30, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 2072.71 points, up 486.59 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1587 USD/TEU, up 20.50%; the US West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 57.92% [3]. - On May 30, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1117.61 points, up 0.9% from the previous period; the European route was 1375.62 points, down 1.2%; the US West route was 944.06 points, up 4.0% [3]. Market Analysis - CMA cut the online freight rates for the second half of June, leading to intense long - short competition and significant market fluctuations. Risk - preferring investors can consider lightly shorting at high prices [2]. - The US court's ruling on the Trump administration may boost the macro - sentiment, but the spot market remains weak. There may be a rush - shipping situation due to the potential easing of the Sino - US trade war in 90 days. Attention should be paid to the final result of the court ruling, the 90 - day spot freight rate range, and the terminal demand feedback under the tariff policy easing [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the basis - narrowing logic. For the 2508 contract, when it rebounds above 2250, it is recommended to lightly short with a stop - loss set [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern. Currently, focus on the court ruling result and mainly adopt a positive - spread structure [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high level, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent trend [4]. Contract Information - On June 5, the main contract 2508 closed at 2146.3, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 73,400 lots and an open interest of 47,300 lots, a decrease of 707 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 was adjusted to 16% [4]. - The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 was adjusted to 26% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4]. Other Information - The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4, service PMI was 48.9, and composite PMI was 49.5. The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [3]. - The May Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [3]. - The US May Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3, service PMI was 52.3, and composite PMI was 52.1 [3]. - China has added over 100 international air freight routes as of the end of May this year, with 26 new routes in May. The new routes are mainly in Asia and Europe, and the main cargo types include cross - border e - commerce goods, electronics, etc. [5].