策略观点：市场韧性-20250606

Macro Overview - The impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy is less than expected, with GDP growth projected to decline from 5.4% in Q1 to 4.9% in Q2 and 4.7% in the second half of the year [9][10] - The Chinese economy shows resilience, with stock and currency markets expected to remain stable during the US-China trade negotiation window [11] - The US economy is experiencing slight stagflation, with GDP growth forecasted to drop from 2.8% last year to 1.5% this year due to tariff impacts [12] Technology Sector - The technology sector remains cautiously optimistic, with leading companies in the domestic and overseas supply chains reporting better-than-expected Q1 performance, driven by domestic subsidies and stable demand for smartphones and PCs [1][2] - For Q2, revenue and gross margin guidance are mixed, with a slowdown in overseas demand for consumer electronics, but a strong outlook for AI server shipments [1] - Key companies to watch include Xiaomi, Apple, and Qualcomm, with expected revenue growth of 5-15% for Apple’s supply chain and 10-15% for Android brands [1] Semiconductor Industry - The trend of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate, with a focus on AI-related self-sufficiency [1] - Major cloud providers are maintaining high capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, indicating strong growth potential for AI applications and semiconductor companies [1] - Recommended stocks include Horizon Robotics, Hezhong Technology, and Weir Group, which are expected to benefit from the AI demand surge [1][8] Internet Sector - Most internet companies reported Q1 earnings that met or exceeded expectations, although competition in transaction-based platforms is raising concerns about profit growth visibility [2] - Companies with strong business models and high barriers to entry are likely to outperform in a competitive environment [2] - Recommended stocks include NetEase and Tencent Music, which are expected to see stable profit growth [2] Automotive Sector - Several automakers reported strong Q1 earnings, with Geely's net profit nearing the upper limit of forecasts and XPeng turning profitable for the first time [3] - The automotive sector is experiencing a new price war, but the impact on overall profitability is expected to be manageable [5] - Recommended stocks include Geely and XPeng, which are anticipated to benefit from new product cycles and strong sales [5][8] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector shows optimism, with major developers reporting contract sales that align with expectations [5] - Policy support is expected to release pent-up demand, with a stable housing sentiment observed since March [5] - Recommended stocks include China Resources Land and Longfor Group, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions [5][8] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is expected to see stable growth in new business value, driven by improvements in value rates [6] - The property and casualty insurance sector is experiencing a slowdown in premium growth, particularly in auto insurance [6] - Recommended stocks include China Pacific Insurance and AIA Group, which are expected to perform well due to their strong fundamentals [7][8] Consumer Goods - The essential consumer goods sector is expected to see marginal improvements, with consumer behavior becoming more cautious yet slightly more willing to spend [4] - Recommended stocks in the food and beverage sector include Nongfu Spring, which is expected to benefit from a rebound in consumer spending [4][8] - The discretionary consumer sector is showing strong performance, particularly in tea, coffee, and travel-related industries [4]