沥青周报：跟随成本震荡-20250606

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Asphalt Weekly Report - Fluctuating with Costs [1] - Report Date: June 6, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Last week's view: It was the preparation stage before the traditional peak season, with factory inventories at a low level compared to the same period, boosting asphalt prices. However, the rainy season would affect demand, weakening the strength of asphalt, but it was still expected to be stronger than crude oil products in the same period [7] - This week's price trend: This week, asphalt fluctuated in place, generally following the cost-side crude oil without additional upward momentum [7] - This week's industry data: This week, both supply and demand of refineries increased, and both factory and social inventories were at low levels compared to the same period, providing some support for pricing before the peak season. However, the impact of the rainy season on demand needed to be considered in the short term [7] - This week's view: It is still the preparation stage before the traditional peak season, with factory inventories at a low level compared to the same period, boosting asphalt prices. However, the rainy season will affect demand, and the recent repair of asphalt profits has boosted the willingness to start work. It is expected that the previous relative strength will be weakened [7] Group 4: Data Overview 2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis - The report presents data on asphalt futures trends, monthly spreads (BU6 - BU9), and basis in East China and Shandong regions from 2020 - 2025, sourced from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11] 2.2 Asphalt Supply - The data includes asphalt plant operating rates, weekly asphalt production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate from 2021 - 2025, sourced from Steel Union Data [12][13][14] 2.3 Asphalt Demand - Data on asphalt shipments, apparent asphalt consumption, paver sales, and the product of paver sales and apparent asphalt consumption from 2020 - 2025 are presented, sourced from Steel Union Data [15][16][17] 2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - The report shows data on asphalt imports, exports, import windows in East China and South China, and the price differences between imported and domestic mainstream prices from 2021 - 2025, sourced from Steel Union Data [18][19][20] 2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Information on factory inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes from 2021 - 2025 is provided, sourced from Steel Union Data [21][22][23] 2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Data on Shandong's asphalt operating rates, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories from 2021 - 2025 are presented, sourced from Steel Union Data [24][25][26] 2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The report includes data on East China's asphalt operating rates, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories from 2020 - 2025, sourced from Steel Union Data [27][28][29] 2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Information on South China's asphalt operating rates, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories from 2020 - 2025 is provided, sourced from Steel Union Data [30][31][32] 2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule - A table shows the maintenance information of multiple refineries, including the production enterprise, maintenance device, production capacity, maintenance start time, and end time. The total annual production capacity of the refineries under maintenance is 20.36 million tons, and the maintenance loss is 738,000 tons, sourced from Steel Union Data [33]