棕榈油市场周报-20250606

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main palm oil 2509 contract rose by 0.62%, closing at 8110 yuan/ton. In May 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.07% month - on - month to 1.74 million tons. Export demand increased significantly, and India's import demand strengthened due to tariff cuts, providing support for palm oil prices. However, there is still pressure from increased production, and inventories may continue to accumulate. Domestic palm oil consumption remains at a basic level, with a slight decrease in weekly trading volume due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Overall, with both bullish and bearish factors, palm oil is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Performance: The main palm oil 2509 contract rose by 0.62%, closing at 8110 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Outlook: Production increased in May, export demand grew, and Indian import demand strengthened; but production pressure persists, and inventory may accumulate. Domestic consumption is stable with a slight decline in trading volume. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: With both bullish and bearish factors, palm oil is expected to move in a volatile manner [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Movement: The Dalian palm oil futures prices rose, and the main 2509 contract increased by 0.62%, closing at 8110 yuan/ton [9][11]. - Spread Change: As of June 6, the palm oil 9 - 1 spread was 38 yuan/ton, widening compared to the previous week [17]. - Position and Warehouse Receipts: As of June 6, the net long position of the top 20 palm oil futures holders was 40,450 lots, an increase of 11,046 lots from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 0, with no change from the previous week [23]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Price Movement: As of June 6, the palm oil spot price in Guangdong was 8530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from the previous week. The FOB price was 975 US dollars/ton, and the CNF price was 1013 US dollars/ton, both unchanged from the previous week [29]. - Basis Change: As of June 6, the basis between the palm oil in Guangdong and the main contract was 470 yuan/ton, narrowing compared to the previous week [33]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Production and Export in April: In April 2025, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.686 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.52%. Exports were 1.1023 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62% [39]. - Inventory in April: At the end of April 2025, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 1.8655 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.37% [43]. - Export in May: According to ITS, Malaysian palm oil exports in May were 1,320,914 tons, a 17.9% increase from April. According to SGS, exports were 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from April [49]. 3.3.2 Domestic - Inventory: As of May 30, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 364,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.08% [53]. - Import Profit: As of June 6, 2024, the price difference between the Guangdong palm oil spot price and the Malaysian import cost was - 160.98 yuan/ton, a decrease of 143.88 yuan/ton from the previous week [57]. 3.3.3 Substitute Oils - Inventory: As of May 30, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of China was 754,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.11%. The rapeseed oil inventory was 769,000 tons, an increase of 0.31 million tons from the previous week [60]. - Price: As of June 6, the price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 7950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 9150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan/ton from the previous week [67]. - Price Spread: This week, the spot and futures price spreads of soybean - palm, rapeseed - palm, and rapeseed - soybean oils all narrowed [74]. 3.3.4 Downstream - Malaysia: In the 2024/25 season, Malaysian palm oil food consumption was 870,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from the previous year, and industrial consumption was 2.9 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from the previous year [80]. - Indonesia: In the 2024/25 season, Indonesian palm oil food consumption was 7.55 million tons, an increase of 250,000 tons from the previous year, and industrial consumption was 13,900 tons, an increase of 400,000 tons from the previous year [87]. - China: In the 2024/25 season, Chinese palm oil food consumption was 3.77 million tons, an increase of 850,000 tons from the previous year, and industrial consumption was 2.1 million tons, with no change from the previous year [93]. 3.4 Options Market - From the palm oil price trend, it is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [98].