白糖周报：郑糖寻底，下方空间有限-20250606

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, the sugar production in the 2024/25 season is settled at 1.11621 billion tons, up 119,890 tons year - on - year. The sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. With an expected import of over 400,000 tons in May, the overall supply faces pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar futures are under downward pressure. However, the high basis provides some support, and it may face strong resistance below 5,700 yuan/ton, with a possible short - term bottom - building rebound [60]. - Internationally, Petrobras cut the average gasoline price by 5.6% on June 3. The estimated sugar production in India for the 2025/26 season is about 3.5 billion tons. The short - term international sugar price is under pressure with limited upside, but the Brazilian production progress and weather factors need attention. The downside space below 17 cents/pound is relatively limited [60]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading [61]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - Futures Price Trends: Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated to find the bottom this week, with a weekly decline of 0.49%. ICE sugar futures weakened, with a weekly decline of 2.81% [9]. - Spot Price and Basis Trends: No detailed content about spot price and basis trends is provided other than the data source [13]. - National Production and Sales: In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [19]. - Sugar Imports: In April, 130,000 tons of sugar were imported, an increase of 80,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar futures July contract price of 17 cents/pound, the in - quota and out - of - quota import costs from Brazil and Thailand are provided [24]. - Domestic Industrial Inventory: In May 2024/25 season, the industrial inventory was 304,830 tons, a decrease of 32,210 tons compared with the same period last year [27]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 29,893, a decrease of 1,688 from last week. The number of warehouse receipts was 29,893, and the valid forecast was 0 [35]. - Brazilian Production Progress: In the first half of May, the cumulative crushing volume was 76.714 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.24%, and the sugar production was 398,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.68% [39]. - Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio: The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil was 48.61%, compared with 47.6% last year [41]. - Brazilian Sugar Monthly Exports: In April, Brazil's sugar export volume was 1.5526 million tons, a decrease of 335,000 tons compared with the same period last year [51]. - International Main Production Area Weather: In India, the monsoon brought increased precipitation. In Brazil, increased rainfall in the main production areas was unfavorable for sugarcane crushing [55][56]. 3.2 Market Outlook - Domestic market: With production determined and sales leading, supply pressure exists, but high basis provides support. There may be a short - term bottom - building rebound. - International market: Gasoline price cuts in Brazil and expected high production in India put pressure on sugar prices, but attention should be paid to Brazilian production and weather [60].