钢材：基差收敛，市场情绪反复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices rebounded this week, but the loss of off - peak electricity remains large. Short - process steel production resumed, and long - process steel still maintained high molten iron output. Overall steel supply is high. - Steel apparent demand continued to decline seasonally. Domestic downstream demand lacks bright spots, and overseas steel exports have declined from their peak. The pressure on sheet metal is expected to increase. - Steel is still destocking, but the destocking speed has slowed down significantly, and rebar has started to accumulate inventory. - Although the Sino - US tariff situation has eased, steel export orders may decline after July. - The blast furnace output has reached its peak, but the profit is high, and steel mills have insufficient motivation to reduce production. The steel price trend is downward [4][7]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - Supply: This week, the small - sample production of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons to 218.46 tons, while that of hot - rolled coil increased by 9.20 tons to 328.75 tons. The daily average molten iron output of 247 blast furnaces was 241.8 tons (- 0.11), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 33.9% (+ 1.2). - Demand: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 229.03 tons (- 19.65), and that for hot - rolled coil was 320.92 tons (- 6.01). Domestic demand in various fields was mixed, and overseas steel exports declined from their peak. - Inventory: Rebar inventory decreased by 10.57 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.83 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 1.79 tons. - Outlook: Entering the off - season, the apparent demand is expected to continue to decline seasonally. The supply is high, and the steel price trend is downward [4]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - Spot Prices: On Friday, the rebar summary price in Shanghai was 3120 yuan (unchanged), and in Beijing was 3160 yuan (+ 10). The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3210 yuan (+ 10), and in Tianjin was 3130 yuan (- 20). - Profit: The cash - in - hand profit of long - process rebar in North China was - 24.10 yuan/ton, and the cost was 3164.10 yuan/ton. The flat - rate electricity cost of electric arc furnaces in East China was about 3371 yuan (converted to the futures market), with a profit of - 288.63 yuan/ton; the off - peak electricity cost was about 3206 yuan, with a profit of - 124 yuan/ton [13][4]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - Domestic: In May, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3. From January to April 2025, China's fixed - asset investment growth rate declined month - on - month. In April, new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 280 billion yuan. - Overseas: In May, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, and the eurozone manufacturing PMI was 49.4. The OECD lowered the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6% and for 2026 to 1.5%. The US ADP employment increase in May was lower than expected [35][46]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - Supply: The daily average molten iron output of 247 blast furnaces was 241.8 tons (- 0.11), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 33.9% (+ 1.2). - Demand: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The construction material demand was lackluster, and the export of steel products declined. - Inventory: Rebar inventory decreased, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased [4][66][74].