需求进一步下滑，尿素出厂价跌幅扩大

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that demand was weak and ex - factory prices fell collectively. This week's view is that demand still lacks support and ex - factory prices are running weakly. Market sentiment remains weak, and the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas are stable with a downward trend [4]. - The daily output remains above 200,000 tons, at the highest level in the same period. The domestic supply is large, the demand is declining, and the urea enterprises are in the inventory accumulation stage again. The ex - factory price of urea has fallen to around 1,770 - 1,780 yuan/ton, and the market is pessimistic about the future, remaining weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the results of next week's Indian tender [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overview - Market sentiment is weak, and the ex - factory quotes of urea in Shandong, Henan, and surrounding areas of the delivery area are expected to decline. The export details have been announced, but the domestic supply is large, and the overall demand is declining [4]. 2. Core Data Changes - Supply: In the 22nd week of 2025 (20250529 - 0604), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 92.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86%; that of gas - based urea was 78.15%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04%. The capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 85.27%, a week - on - week increase of 2.21% [5]. - Demand: In the 23rd week of 2025 (20250529 - 0605), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.31%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points from last week; the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer dropped to 37.13%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from last week. The arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 6.67% from last week. As of June 6, 2025, the urea demand of Linyi compound fertilizer sample production enterprises was 1,180 tons, a week - on - week increase of 68.57%. As of June 4, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.47 days, a decrease of 0.41 days from the previous period [5]. - Inventory: As of June 4, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0354 million tons, an increase of 54,800 tons from last week. The sample inventory of urea ports was 205,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was weakly stable, the price of Yulin pulverized coal fell, and the urea spot price fell. The profit of fixed - bed production was 140 yuan/ton, that of coal - water slurry production was 340 yuan/ton, and that of entrained - flow bed production was 570 yuan/ton. The futures fell sharply, the basis was 50 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread converged to 50 yuan/ton [5].