银河期货甲醇日报-20250606

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the international methanol device operating rate has declined from a high level, with some devices in the Iranian region experiencing short - term outages. The daily output has dropped from 38,000 tons to around 29,000 tons, but it remains at a high level. The import volume in May is expected to exceed 120 tons, and it will increase significantly to over 130 tons in June. The downstream demand is stable, and as the arrival volume increases, the ports start to accumulate inventory. Meanwhile, due to the continuous decline of domestic coal prices, the coal - to - methanol profit has expanded to the highest level in history, and the scale of spring maintenance is less than expected, resulting in a continuous and loose domestic supply. Currently, the phased external procurement of CTO in the inland region has ended, and the inventory of inland enterprises has started to accumulate. The tight supply situation has been alleviated to some extent. At the same time, the downstream resists high prices, and the inland auction prices have continuously declined. However, the operating rate of MTO has increased, the port demand has risen, and bulk commodities are oscillating strongly. Methanol has followed the upward trend in the short term, but in the long - term, a bearish approach should be adopted, and short - selling on dips is not recommended [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The futures market oscillated, closing at 2263 (+7/+0.31%). In the spot market, prices varied by region. For example, in production areas, the price in Inner Mongolia's southern line and northern line was 1880 yuan/ton, while in consumption areas, the price in the southern part of Shandong was 2130 yuan/ton, and in ports, the price in Taicang was 2310 yuan/ton [4]. Important Information - From May 30 to June 5, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,985,884 tons, an increase of 19,529 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 88.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.99% [5]. Logic Analysis - Supply side: The coal - mining start - up rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but the demand is weak, and the raw coal price is oscillating. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest have stopped falling and stabilized. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 500 yuan/ton, and the methanol start - up rate remains high and stable, with a continuous and loose domestic supply [6]. - Import side: The operating rate of international methanol devices has declined from a high level, the US dollar price has risen slightly, and imports remain profitable. Some Iranian devices have restarted, the non - Iranian operating rate is stable, the overseas operating rate has increased from a high level, and the European and American markets are differentiated. The import volume in June is expected to be 1.35 - 1.4 million tons [6]. - Demand side: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of MTO devices has increased, with some MTO devices in different enterprises operating at different loads [6]. - Inventory: Imports are gradually resuming, demand is rigid, and imports are profitable. Port inventories have reached the bottom, and the basis is consolidating. Inland enterprise inventories have started to rise [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Sell on rallies, do not chase the decline [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Sell call options [10].