Report Summary - The rubber market rebounded this week due to improved macro - sentiment, but the rebound was limited by fundamental pressures. The raw material cost support weakened, and the downstream tire demand was expected to be weak. The price was supported below by short - term macro - sentiment improvement, and future focus should be on weather and tire demand changes [6]. Market Focus Positive Factors - In May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.93 million, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.802 million, a year - on - year increase of 9%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 2.329 million, a year - on - year increase of 14% and a month - on - month increase of 6%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 10.797 million, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The auto consumption index in May 2025 was 81.6, slightly higher than the previous month, and the market in June was expected to be basically flat or slightly increase compared with May [7]. - The weekly rainfall in the world's main natural rubber producing areas decreased, and the rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas in the next two weeks would also decrease, reducing the impact on rubber tapping [7]. - The call between Chinese and US leaders improved the macro - atmosphere [7][10]. - The probability that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in June was 97.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 2.5%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 67.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 32.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 0.8% [7]. Negative Factors - The price of natural rubber raw materials weakened [7]. - The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly [7]. - The price of butadiene, the raw material of butadiene rubber, was weakly stable [7]. - Butadiene rubber traders reduced their inventory slightly, while factories showed a trend of inventory accumulation [7]. - The overall capacity utilization rate of tires declined [7]. Multi - Empty Focus Bullish Factors - The call between Chinese and US leaders improved the macro - atmosphere [10]. Bearish Factors - The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises was weak [10]. - The expectation of rubber tapping recovery weakened the support of natural rubber raw materials [10]. Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Price - As of June 5, the price of fresh glue in Thailand was 56 Thai baht/kg, the cup - lump price was 44.7 Thai baht/kg, and the glue price in Yunnan, China was 12,700 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials at home and abroad decreased compared with the previous week, and the cost support of rubber weakened [12]. Qingdao Inventory - As of the week of May 30, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 86,887 tons, a decrease of 3,607 tons, and the general trade spot inventory was 522,778 tons, a decrease of 1,312 tons. The downstream restocked before the Dragon Boat Festival, driving a slight reduction in inventory [13]. Butadiene Price - This week, the domestic butadiene market fell slightly and then stabilized. The demand side dragged down the market, but some device overhauls and limited imports supported the market. As of June 5, the delivered price in the central Shandong region was about 9,400 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank price in the main ports of East China was about 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 934.2857 yuan/ton, and the price decline increased the loss of production enterprises [15]. Butadiene Rubber Inventory - As of the week of June 6, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 28,300 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous week, and the trader inventory was 5,800 tons, a decrease of 680 tons from the previous week. The downstream restocking enthusiasm was not high [17]. Tire Capacity Utilization - As of the week of June 6, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 55.65%, a decrease of 5.15% from the previous week, and the available inventory days in Shandong factories were 41.87 days, a decrease of 0.09 days. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 64.05%, a decrease of 8.46% from the previous week, and the available inventory days in Shandong factories were 45.84 days, a decrease of 0.38 days. Affected by the Dragon Boat Festival, the capacity utilization rate decreased. The replacement demand for all - steel tires may increase with rising temperatures, but the space was limited due to low freight prices. The inventory structure of all - steel tire enterprises improved compared with last year, while the inventory reduction of semi - steel tire enterprises was still difficult [19]. Contract Spread - As of June 5, the spread of the "RU - NR" September contract showed a convergence trend, and the spread of the "NR - BR" September contract fluctuated within a range [21]. Market Outlook - The future tire demand is expected to be weak, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is difficult to reach the high level of the same period last year. The cost support of raw materials has weakened, but the macro - sentiment has been improved by the call between Chinese and US leaders. Overall, the downstream demand is weaker than last year, limiting the upside of prices. The raw material support has weakened in the short term, but the prices are supported below by short - term macro - sentiment improvement. Future focus should be on weather and tire demand changes [25].
中航期货橡胶周度报告-20250606
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-06-06 10:23