铅锌产业链周度报告-20250606

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc price's box - style oscillation pattern awaits a breakthrough, while the lead price is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be focused on the price trend of waste batteries [4][64]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Report Abstract - The US ADP employment increase in a certain month was 1.37 million, lower than the expected 1.5 million and the previous value of 2.625 million, reaching the lowest level in years. The market focused on this data [4]. - China's manufacturing PMI in a certain month was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical point. It was the first time to fall below the critical point in a certain period [4]. - The European Central Bank mentioned continued small - scale interest rate cuts, and countries would increase investment in national defense and infrastructure, providing support on a broader macro - level [4]. - The China Zinc Raw Material Joint Negotiation (Coordination) Group announced the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate procurement fees in the third quarter of 2025 [4]. - The supply of zinc raw materials remained loose, and the zinc ingot output might have a large - scale increase. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly, and the low inventory supported the zinc price [4]. - The supply of recycled lead was unstable, and the inventory of lead ingots in the national market increased. The consumption of waste batteries was weak, and the lead price was expected to remain volatile [4]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Multi - and Short - Factors Analysis (Zinc) - Bullish factors: The output of domestic and foreign zinc mines may accelerate in June, and the zinc ingot output ratio may have a large - scale increase, and the social inventory has decreased [7]. - Bearish factors: The consumption end is weak [7]. 3.2.2 Multi - and Short - Factors Analysis (Lead) - Bullish factors: The supply of recycled lead is still unstable [10]. - Bearish factors: The operating rate of primary lead enterprises is high, the price of waste batteries is running weakly, and the off - season consumption has not improved significantly [10]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc - Related Data - In April, China's zinc ore concentrate imports were 494,662.21 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 37.64% and a year - on - year increase of 72.63%. The supply from major countries increased, and Australia became the top supplier [12]. - In June, the average domestic zinc concentrate TC increased by 150 yuan/metal ton to 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported ore TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton to 55 dollars/dry ton. The China Zinc Raw Material Joint Negotiation (Coordination) Group released the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate procurement fees [15]. - The price of zinc concentrate slightly increased. The price of 50% zinc concentrate in Hechi was 17,930 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Chenzhou, it was 17,700 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous week [20]. - In April, China's refined zinc output was 576,000 tons, down 39,000 tons from March, with a year - on - year slight increase of 0.3%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 2.333 million tons, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.9%. Due to the increase in zinc ore processing fees, the smelter's production profit was repaired [23]. - In April, refined zinc imports were 28,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.66%. From January to April, the cumulative imports were 129,200 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 9.44% [26]. - Policies such as the new energy vehicle countryside campaign and urban renewal were introduced, which may have an impact on the consumption of zinc in related industries [30]. - As of June 5, the LME zinc inventory was 137,150 tons, down 1.44% from the previous week. The SHFE zinc inventory decreased by 4% to 42,310 tons in the week of May 30. As of June 5, the zinc ingot inventory in the national main markets was 58,300 tons, down 900 tons from June 3 [33]. 3.3.2 Lead - Related Data - This week, the lead futures and spot prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. The basis was 55 yuan/ton, and the premium range narrowed. The price difference between 1 lead and recycled refined lead was 110 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous week [38]. - The weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Kunming decreased by 257 yuan/ton, and in Baoji, it decreased by 251 yuan/ton. As of May 30, the lead concentrate processing fees in different regions changed, with some decreasing and some increasing [42]. - In April 2025, the lead concentrate imports were 111,046 physical tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. As of 2025, the cumulative lead concentrate imports were about 448,700 physical tons, with a year - on - year increase of 41%. In April, the refined lead imports were 4,734 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 65% [46]. - In April 2025, China's lead output was 664,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1%. Both primary lead and recycled lead production decreased in April, but some enterprises resumed production in May [48]. - The operating rate of primary lead increased by 5.98 percentage points to 66.26%. The operating rate of recycled lead enterprises increased by 10.94 percentage points to 62.91%, and the operating rate of lead batteries increased by 1.99 percentage points to 74.34% [51][53][57]. - Last week, the LME lead inventory decreased after a large - scale increase, and the SHFE lead inventory decreased by 3.98% to 46,500 tons in the week of May 30. As of June 5, the national main market lead ingot social inventory was 50,800 tons, up 3,900 tons from June 3 [61]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The zinc price's box - style oscillation pattern awaits a breakthrough; the lead price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the price trend of waste batteries [64].