油脂：三大油脂走势分化，豆油表现偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the export pressure of Brazilian soybeans gradually decreased, and there may be unfavorable dry weather in the US Midwest in mid - June. After the China - US leaders' call, the market is optimistic about China - US trade, leading to a mild rebound in CBOT soybeans. The export demand for Malaysian palm oil improved, but production also increased, with an expected rise in May palm oil inventory to 2.01 million tons, which suppresses the rebound space of palm oil. The strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit also drags down the crude palm oil futures. [5][6] - In the domestic market, the import soybean crushing volume of oil mills reached a high level, increasing the spot supply pressure. Affected by the hype of high - temperature in US soybeans, the import cost is expected to rise, causing soybean oil to stop falling and rebound. The fundamentals of domestic palm oil changed little, and Dalian palm oil followed the external market with narrow - range fluctuations. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at an absolute high in the same period. With the easing signal of China - Canada relations, the expectation of tightened supply of imported rapeseed and rapeseed oil may be broken, and the short - term rapeseed oil price may decline further. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - As of the week ending June 3rd, about 16% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 17% in the previous week and 1% in the same period last year. [2] - From June 1st to 7th, Brazil's soybean export volume is predicted to be 4.9016 million tons, up from 3.0155 million tons last week. [2] - Malaysia's palm oil production from May 1st to 31st is estimated to increase by 3.07%, with different increases in different regions. [2] - In the 2024/25 season so far, the EU's palm oil imports have significantly decreased by 19% compared with the same period last year due to the long - term restrictive effect of the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED II). [2] - As of the week ending May 29th, the net sales volume of US soybeans to China in the 2024/25 season was - 1,100 tons, and the shipment volume was 65,000 tons. [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the CBOT soybean rebounds moderately. The Malaysian palm oil export demand improves, but the inventory increase and the strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit suppress the rebound space. [5][6] - Domestically, soybean oil stops falling and rebounds, palm oil fluctuates narrowly, and rapeseed oil price may decline further. [6]