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养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250606
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo·2025-06-06 11:08

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Soybean No. 1: The price in the Northeast market is stable, with tight supply in the producing areas. The demand in the consumer areas is weak. The 07 contract is recommended for short - term observation, with key pressure at 4170 - 4200 yuan/ton and support at 4000 - 4050 yuan/ton [3]. - Peanut: The short - term price fluctuates. The 10 - contract has support at 8244 - 8280 and pressure at 8520 - 8528. New - season peanut acreage is expected to increase slightly year - on - year [4]. - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to observe, with support at 7400 - 7500 yuan/ton and pressure at 7850 - 7900 yuan/ton [4]. - Rapeseed Oil: The inventory is high, and the supply is expected to be loose in the short term. The 09 contract is recommended to reduce short positions, with support at 8800 - 8810 and pressure at 9390 - 9399 [4]. - Palm Oil: The short - term price fluctuates. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels. The 09 contract has support at 7928 - 7980 and pressure at 8332 - 8376 [5]. - Soybean Meal: The supply - side negative factors are still at play, but it is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. The 09 contract is recommended for light - position long - term trials, with support at 2930 - 2940 and pressure at 3100 - 3150 [12]. - Rapeseed Meal: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the 09 contract is recommended to reduce short positions, with support at 2648 - 2509 and pressure at 2637 - 2649 [12]. - Corn: It is recommended to buy on dips. The 07 contract has support at 2290 - 2300 and pressure at 2430 - 2450 [7]. - Corn Starch: It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously. The 07 contract has support at 2640 - 2650 and pressure at 2790 - 2800 [12]. - Live Pigs: The 09 contract is in a weak state at a low level. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips, with a reference range of 13000 - 13500 [12]. - Eggs: The 07 contract is recommended to close the previous short - 7 - long - 9 position at low levels and then observe. Consider a rebound after an extreme decline [9]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Market Analysis: Different varieties have different market logics. For example, soybean meal is expected to bottom out and rebound, while rapeseed oil is expected to decline weakly. Corresponding trading strategies are given for each variety [12]. - Commodity Arbitrage: For cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage of different commodities, different strategies such as waiting and positive/negative arbitrage are recommended [13][14]. - Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies: The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various commodities [15]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table - Oilseeds and Oils - Daily Data: It shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil for different shipping dates [16][17]. - Weekly Data: It includes the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [18]. - Feed - Daily Data: It presents the import costs of corn from different countries and months [19]. - Weekly Data: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and other data of corn and corn starch [19]. - Livestock Farming: It provides daily and weekly data on live pigs and eggs, including prices, production, sales, and profit data [21][23][25]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock Farming (Live Pigs and Eggs): It includes charts of futures and spot prices, as well as prices of related products such as piglets and chicken eggs [26][30][33] - Oilseeds and Oils - Palm Oil: It includes charts of production, export, inventory, and price spreads of Malaysian palm oil, as well as domestic palm oil data [35][37][39] - Soybean Oil: It includes charts of US soybean crushing, inventory, and domestic soybean oil data [43][44] - Peanuts: It includes charts of domestic peanut arrival, shipment, and processing data [50][52] - Feed - Corn: It includes charts of corn inventory, sales progress, import volume, and processing profit [54][56][57] - Corn Starch: It includes charts of corn starch operating rate, inventory, and processing profit [59][60] - Rapeseed: It includes charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, and inventory [61][63][65] - Soybean Meal: It includes charts of US soybean growth, inventory, and other data [72][74] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It includes charts of historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various commodities [75][76] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils It includes charts of warehouse receipts for various commodities such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and corn [78][79]