量价因子在应对突发新闻波动时的表现

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring volume and price indicators to respond to unpredictable major events like the US-China tariff negotiations, focusing on market expectations and risk-reward balance [2][5] - Key volume-price factors that signaled market movements before critical dates include KUP1, cors, HIGH0, and KSFT1 [5][6] Phase 1: Accumulation of Bullish Forces Before April 3 - The market from late March to early April 2025 can be divided into "consolidation" and "breakout" phases, with bullish sentiment gradually building up [6][7] - On March 28 to April 2, the market showed signs of bullish testing, with T2506 fluctuating between 107.3 and 108.0, indicating tentative bullish entry without significant volume increase [6][7] - On April 3, the announcement of a dual tariff system by the US led to a bullish breakout, with T2506 opening significantly higher and surpassing previous highs [6][8] Phase 2: Marginal Exit of Speculative Funds Before May 12 - In early May 2025, the bond futures market exhibited a "price increase with volume decrease" characteristic, indicating cautious market sentiment ahead of tariff negotiation results [11][12] - On May 7, indicators KUP1, HIGH0, and KSFT1 signaled a reduction in bullish momentum, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [11][12] - By May 9, the cors indicator confirmed the marginal exit of bullish forces, suggesting a potential increase in downside risk [12][13] Current Indicator Performance - As of late May, the US tariff policy remains uncertain, and the domestic bond market is in a narrow fluctuation pattern, highlighting the need for timely market observation [15] - The KSFT1 indicator has issued a bullish signal, indicating a release of bearish sentiment, while other indicators have yet to confirm further changes in market dynamics [15]