供应偏少，花生盘面高位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The peanut market is experiencing high-level fluctuations due to low supply. Although the price of general peanuts is stable, the new peanut planting area is expected to increase and the planting cost to decrease, limiting the rebound height. It is recommended to short 10 peanuts above 8500, conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 1 spread when it is high, and try the option strategy of selling pk510 - C - 8800 [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading Logic: The trading volume of peanuts is average. The prices of general peanuts, oil - mill purchase prices, and imported peanuts are stable. The import volume has decreased significantly, the oil - mill operating rate has declined, peanut meal prices have slightly dropped following soybean meal, and peanut oil prices are stable. The downstream consumption is still weak, with the oil - mill peanut oil inventory decreasing and the peanut inventory remaining high. Recently, the weather in Henan and other places has been dry, but the new peanut planting area is expected to increase and the planting cost to decrease, limiting the rebound height [4]. - Strategy: Short 10 peanuts above 8500, conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 1 spread when it is high, and try the option strategy of selling pk510 - C - 8800 [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Peanut Price: In the domestic market, peanut prices in the Northeast and Henan production areas have risen. The price of large peanuts in Junan, Shandong is 4.2 yuan per catty, remaining stable from last week; the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang, Henan is 4.85 yuan per catty, up 0.1 yuan per catty from last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.8 yuan per catty, remaining stable from last week; the price of Baisha peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4.85 yuan per catty, up 0.05 yuan per catty from last week. The price of general peanuts has slightly increased. The oil - mill purchase price is stable, generally between 7350 - 7700 yuan per ton. The price of imported Sudan peanuts is 8300 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week [8]. - Domestic Demand: The oil - mill operating rate has decreased. As of June 5, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 8.42%, a 3% decrease from last week. The oil - mill peanut inventory is 14.5 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons from last week, and the peanut oil inventory is 4.01 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons from last week [11]. - Pressing Profit: The peanut - purchasing price of peanut oil mills is stable, the peanut meal price has dropped, and the peanut oil price is stable. The oil - mill pressing profit is 39 yuan per ton, a decrease of 28 yuan per ton from last week. The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 15000 yuan per ton, and the price of small - pressed fragrant oil is 17000 yuan per ton, both remaining stable from last week. Due to the drop in soybean meal prices, the peanut meal price has dropped to 3200 yuan per ton this week, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton from last week [14]. - Basis and Spread: It is recommended to wait and see. This week, due to the rise in the price of 10 - contract peanuts, the 10 - 1 spread has remained stable at around 250 yuan [18]. - Peanut Import and Export: In April, 12,000 tons of peanut kernels were imported, and from January to April, 54,000 tons were imported, a 78% decrease from the same period last year. In April, 18,000 tons of peanut kernels were exported, and from January to April, 63,000 tons were exported, a 27% increase from the same period last year. In April, 27,000 tons of peanut oil were imported, and from January to April, 114,000 tons were imported, a 23% increase from the same period last year [23]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Peanut Price: The data shows the price trends of Shandong general peanut kernels, the price of oil - mill peanut purchases, and the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts [7]. - Domestic Demand: The data shows the trends of the oil - mill operating rate, peanut kernel inventory, and pressing volume [10]. - Pressing Profit: The data shows the trends of the oil - mill pressing profit, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal, and the price of Shandong peanut oil [13]. - Basis and Spread: The data shows the trends of the basis between Shandong peanuts and continuous contracts and the 10 - 1 spread [17]. - Peanut Import and Export: The data shows the trends of peanut kernel imports and exports and peanut oil imports [22].