聚酯产业风险管理日报：乙烷风波再起，近端几无影响-20250606

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After the China-US joint statement, terminal textile and clothing orders recovered, downstream sentiment improved, filament inventory was significantly reduced, and polyester raw materials showed a strong trend. However, the actual boost of export rush to demand was lower than expected, there was a high possibility of polyester production cuts, and demand expectations weakened marginally. The polyester sector became an option for capital short allocation to reduce valuations. The previous tight spot market contradictions may loosen due to the outflow of solidified goods, and the high valuation of ethylene glycol is expected to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of polyester production cuts and the speed of visible inventory reduction [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ethylene glycol is 4,150 - 4,650, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.68% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 42.7% - The price range for PX is 6,300 - 6,900, with a volatility of 25.89% and a historical percentile of 81.1% - The PTA price range is 4,400 - 4,900, with a volatility of 24.52% and a historical percentile of 73.7% - The bottle chip price range is 5,700 - 6,250, with a volatility of 19.62% and a historical percentile of 64.1% [1] Polyester Hedging Strategy Table Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory of ethylene glycol is high and there are concerns about price decline, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short ethylene glycol futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. The recommended hedging tool is EG2509, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4,400 - 4,500. They can also buy put options to prevent price drops and sell call options to reduce costs, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 30 - 50 for put options and 70 - 100 for call options - When worried about ethylene glycol price increases and rising procurement costs, enterprises can buy ethylene glycol futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EG2509, with a 50% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4,200 - 4,250 [1] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory of ethylene glycol is low and enterprises hope to purchase according to order situations, they can sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the price of ethylene glycol drops, they can lock in the purchase price. The recommended hedging tool is EG2509P4200, with a 75% hedging ratio and an entry range of 80 - 100 [1] Core Contradictions - After the China - US joint statement, the terminal textile and clothing market improved, and polyester raw materials showed a strong trend. But the actual demand boost from the export rush was lower than expected, there were signs of polyester production cuts, and demand expectations weakened. The previous tight spot market contradictions may loosen, and the high - valued ethylene glycol is expected to face pressure. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of polyester production cuts and the speed of visible inventory reduction [2] 利多解读 (Likely a typo, should be Positive Interpretations) - The US Department of Commerce requires ethane export enterprises to obtain licenses before exporting ethane to China, which poses a long - term risk to the raw material supply of ethane - to - ethylene glycol plants. However, it is estimated that there will be limited substantial impact on the ethylene glycol supply side before the 09 contract [3] 利空解读 (Likely a typo, should be Negative Interpretations) - The cost of crude oil and coal prices stopped falling - The de - stocking pattern in June remains unchanged, and visible inventory has further tightened - Leading filament manufacturers have implemented their previous FDY and chip production cut plans and announced an additional 8% production cut in the second round. If implemented, the polyester load will be unexpectedly reduced, and the weakening demand for ethylene glycol will be realized in advance - There are rumors that previously solidified goods will flow out, and the panic has significantly weakened the willingness to hold inventory - The freight index has declined, and the intensity of the export rush is lower than expected [7] Price Table - The report provides price data for various products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha CFR Japan, and many polyester - related products on June 6, 2025, June 5, 2025, and May 29, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes [5][8] Spread Table - The report shows the spreads between different contracts of PX, TA, EG, and other products, as well as the basis differences of TA, EG, and PF, and their daily and weekly changes [8] Warehouse Receipt Table - The report presents the number of warehouse receipts for PTA, MEG, and PX and their daily and weekly changes [8] Processing Fee Table - The report gives the processing fees of various products such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread, and the profits of POY, DTY, FDY, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [8][9] Sales Rate Table - The report provides the sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips and their daily and weekly changes [9]