国债期货日报：2025年6月多头情绪强化-20250606

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a “Firm Hold” rating for the bond futures market [1] Core Viewpoint - The bullish sentiment in the bond futures market is strengthening, and it is recommended to hold positions firmly. The early release of the outright reverse repurchase by the central bank can effectively boost market expectations of monetary easing and confidence in monetary policy. The clear signal of liquidity support from the central bank can support the medium - term upward trend [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Disk Review - Bond futures opened higher in the morning and remained strong throughout the day, closing up across the board. The long - end contracts showed more significant catch - up gains than the short - end ones. In the cash bond market, the long - end interest rates declined slightly during the session, but the decline widened around 3 p.m. possibly due to the fermentation of market sentiment [1] 2. Intraday News - On June 5, local time, a U.S. judge blocked Trump's ban on international students at Harvard University from entering the U.S. Harvard filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration's decision [2] 3. Market Judgment - The speculation about the China - U.S. phone call on Thursday evening has settled. The content of the call was far from the rumors. The market's reaction to China - U.S. negotiation news has been weak recently. More importantly, the central bank's early announcement of the outright reverse repurchase can boost market expectations of monetary easing. The central bank's support for liquidity through various means gives a clear signal of protecting liquidity. The trading idea of restarting bond purchases can be compared to the previous interest - rate cut trading. Although the net injection of the outright reverse repurchase and MLF reduces the possibility of restarting bond purchases in the short term, the expectation will be postponed rather than falsified, and the consistent easing expectation can support the medium - term upward trend [3] 4. Data Overview - Contract Prices and Changes: On June 6, 2025, compared with June 5, 2025, TS2509 rose 0.014 to 102.448, TF2509 rose 0.065 to 106.125, T2509 rose 0.165 to 108.9, and TL2509 rose 0.36 to 119.72 [4] - Contract Positions and Changes: TS contract positions increased by 104 to 121,727, TF contract positions increased by 958 to 169,870, T contract positions increased by 9,149 to 203,694, and TL contract positions increased by 3,512 to 117,782 [4] - Basis and Changes: TS basis (CTD) rose 0.0065 to - 0.0721, TF basis (CTD) rose 0.0151 to - 0.0084, T basis (CTD) rose 0.0442 to - 0.0138, and TL basis (CTD) rose 0.0726 to 0.6076 [4] - Trading Volume and Changes: TS main contract trading volume decreased by 14,127 to 34,876, TF main contract trading volume decreased by 24,020 to 49,178, T main contract trading volume decreased by 10,218 to 54,263, and TL main contract trading volume increased by 3,627 to 70,269 [4] - Funding Rates and Changes: DR001 decreased 0.0013 to 1.412, DR007 decreased 0.004 to 1.5509, and DR014 increased 0.0056 to 1.5892 [4] - Funding Trading Volume and Changes: DR001 trading volume increased by 2662.79 billion to 26201.6365 billion, DR007 trading volume decreased by 249.2774 billion to 854.1969 billion, and DR014 trading volume increased by 23.235 billion to 159.745 billion [4]