2025年银行业中期策略：业绩压力临近拐点，盈利释放能力强的区域行更优

Core Viewpoints - The banking sector is approaching a turning point with strong profit release capabilities in regional banks [5][22] - The report anticipates a stable growth in bank revenue and net profit for 2025, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -1% and 0% respectively [5][22] Market Review - From the beginning of the year to June 4, the banking sector has seen a cumulative increase of 11.5%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 10.7% [5][6] - The performance of regional banks, particularly in Shandong, Sichuan-Chongqing, and Jiangsu-Zhejiang, has been notably strong, with some banks achieving over 20% growth [12][15] - The stability of bank earnings during the disclosure of annual and quarterly reports has contributed to the sector's defensive value [5][6] Fundamental Review - As of Q1 2025, the year-on-year growth of interest-earning assets for listed banks was 7.5%, with loans and financial investments remaining stable [22][24] - The net interest margin for listed banks was 1.37%, a decrease of 13 basis points year-on-year, but the decline was less than the previous year [5][22] - The asset quality remains stable, with a decrease in non-performing loan ratios and a stable generation rate of non-performing loans [5][22] Industry Outlook - The banking sector is expected to face continued pressure in 2025, but is nearing a turning point with a reduced rate of net interest margin contraction [5][22] - The report predicts that credit demand will remain stable, with a slight slowdown in credit growth due to ongoing counter-cyclical policies [5][22] - The report highlights that the central bank is likely to continue implementing interest rate cuts to alleviate pressure on banks' funding costs [5][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the combination of fundamental and funding factors enhances the value of bank sector allocations [5][22] - It recommends focusing on key index-weighted stocks such as China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [5][22] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term capital from insurance funds to support absolute returns in the banking sector [5][22]