基础化工行业2025年下半年投资展望：基础化工行业：行业供需格局改善，成本压力缓解

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry, indicating an expectation of better performance compared to the market benchmark [2][63]. Core Insights - The chemical industry in China is expected to see a recovery from its low point, with improvements in supply-demand dynamics. The price index for chemical products has shown slight fluctuations downward, but global energy costs have decreased from their highs, leading to a more favorable outlook for the industry [4][43]. - The report identifies three key investment directions: 1. Sub-industries with improving supply-demand dynamics and expected recovery in industry prosperity. 2. Leading companies driven by capital expenditure and R&D for long-term growth. 3. High-end chemical new materials benefiting from increased demand or ongoing domestic substitution [5][44][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply-Demand Dynamics - The chemical industry is currently in a low prosperity phase, with a 6% decline in the chemical product price index in the first half of 2025. However, there are signs of improvement in supply and demand, with domestic manufacturing demand showing positive growth [14][43]. - Domestic manufacturing demand has improved, with the industrial added value of chemical raw materials and products increasing by 8.9% year-on-year as of April 2025 [17][22]. - Fixed asset investment growth in the chemical industry has slowed, with a 1.3% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and products sector as of April 2025 [29][30]. 2. Key Investment Directions - The report suggests focusing on sub-industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, such as titanium dioxide, additives (amino acids and vitamins), chemical fibers, and refrigerants [5][44]. - Leading companies are expected to benefit from capital expenditure and R&D, with significant investments from major players like Sinopec and Wanhua Chemical [6][48][50]. - The demand for high-end chemical new materials is anticipated to grow, particularly in sectors like 5G, new displays, and biomedical applications, driving domestic substitution [52][54]. 3. Investment Strategy - The report recommends monitoring the recovery of the chemical industry in the second half of 2025, with a focus on companies such as Longbai Group, Hualu Hengsheng, Yangnong Chemical, Xinheng, and Guocer Materials as potential investment targets [56][55].