通信行业2025年半年度投资策略：算力产业链发展迅速，看好光模块、IDC、物联

Investment Summary - The communication sector ranked 25th in terms of growth in the first half of 2025, with a cumulative decline of 4.0% in the Shenwan Communication Index [4][20] - The valuation of the communication sector is at a reasonable level, with a PE (TTM) range of 21.3X-24.8X, and a PE of 23.0X at the end of May [4][22] - The communication industry chain can be divided into three segments: 1) wired and wireless communication networks led by operators; 2) AI computing power industry chain invested by operators and large model manufacturers; 3) integrated applications combining communication networks with various industries, including IoT, vehicle networking, industrial internet, enterprise communication, and satellite internet [4][25] Light Module Market - The light module market is expected to benefit from increased AI capital expenditure by leading cloud computing companies in the US and China, with growth rates projected to remain high despite a decline in growth rates from 70% to 50% for US companies and from 130% to 90% for Chinese companies from 2024 to 2025 [5][38] - The impact of US tariffs on light modules is considered limited, with the tariff rate increasing from 7.5% to 27.5%, leading to short-term order stagnation and a gradual shift of domestic capacity to Southeast Asia [5][38] IDC and AI Computing Centers - The AI-driven IDC sector is entering a new phase, with significant capital investments from major internet platforms and private capital, indicating a growing demand for AI infrastructure [6][9] - The construction and operation of intelligent computing centers are heavily reliant on power supply, and supportive policies from government agencies are anticipated to facilitate this development [6][78] IoT Module Market - Domestic IoT module manufacturers have successfully penetrated overseas markets, with leading companies like Quectel and Guanghetong holding significant market shares [9][88] - The global wireless communication module market is projected to grow from 48.5 billion yuan in 2025 to 72.6 billion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.6% [91][93] AI Module Market - The global edge AI market is expected to experience explosive growth, with projections indicating an increase from 321.9 billion yuan in 2025 to 1,223 billion yuan by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 39.6% [103][104] - The Chinese edge AI market is also anticipated to grow from 80.2 billion yuan in 2025 to 307.7 billion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 39.9% [8][106]