金属行业2025半年度展望（）：供需结构强化叠加流动性周期切换

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry as of June 6, 2025 [3] Core Insights - The global metal industry is currently in a weak supply cycle, with a structural tightening in the gold market and a potential continuous expansion of the silver supply-demand gap [5][10] - The pricing logic of gold has undergone a qualitative change, with supply-demand attributes becoming more significant in determining price resilience [9][43] - The report identifies three main investment themes: industrial metals with resilient supply-demand dynamics, small metals with enhanced growth attributes, and precious metals with strong hedging properties [7][22] Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global metal industry is experiencing a weak supply cycle, with exploration investments declining by 3% to $12.5 billion in 2024 [6][22] - The average supply growth rate for global mining is significantly lower than the output growth rate, with a drop from 6.35% to 2.22% in 2024 [7][23] - The supply state is expected to remain rigid until 2028 due to reduced greenfield exploration investments [6][24] 2. Precious Metals Analysis Gold - The gold market's pricing logic has shifted, with supply-demand attributes now playing a crucial role in price determination [9][43] - Global gold supply is in a structurally tight state, with production costs rising to $1,456 per ounce [46] - Gold demand has reached historical highs, with 2024 demand projected at 4,988 tons, marking a 0.7% increase from 2023 [55][57] Silver - The global silver supply-demand gap is expected to widen, with supply growth projected at a CAGR of only 1.2% from 2024 to 2027 [10][11] - Industrial demand for silver is anticipated to grow, driven by sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [10][11] Platinum - The platinum market is entering a structural supply shortage, with a projected supply gap of 39 tons in 2025 [11][12] - Global platinum supply is expected to decline by 6.2% in 2025, while demand remains resilient [11][12] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the cyclical, growth, and hedging attributes of the metal industry for investment opportunities [7][22] - Specific companies related to gold, silver, and platinum are highlighted for potential investment [9][10][11]