东兴证券晨报-20250606

Group 1: Metal Industry Overview - The global metal industry is currently in a weak supply cycle, with exploration investment declining by 3% to $12.5 billion in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decrease [2][3] - The average supply growth rate of global mining is significantly lower than the output growth rate, with actual supply growth dropping from 6.35% to 2.22% in 2024, which is only 49.8% of the 30-year average [3] - Global metal inventories are at a near 35-year low, showing signs of destocking, with total visible inventory down 34.6% from its peak in 2024 [3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Metal Sector - The metal industry is expected to maintain strong resilience despite a low inventory cycle, with three main investment themes: cyclical (supply and inventory cycles), growth (long-term demand expansion), and hedging (against inflation and risks) [4][6] - The copper sector is projected to experience a supply gap, with global copper consumption expected to rise by 11.3% to 11.345 million tons from 2024 to 2027, while supply growth remains constrained [7] - The aluminum sector is seeing structural optimization in bauxite supply, with a self-sufficiency rate that can only support consumption for 7.53 years, leading to a significant increase in demand for bauxite [8] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Lan Jian Intelligent (688557.SH) is a leading company in the smart logistics system sector, focusing on self-research and production capabilities, with a revenue of 1.122 billion yuan from automated warehousing logistics systems in 2024 [10][11] - The company aims to enhance its revenue structure by focusing on high-margin services, with maintenance services achieving a gross margin of 52.05% in 2024 [12][13] - Lan Jian Intelligent is expected to expand its overseas revenue share, which was 2.70% in 2024, as it successfully entered new markets such as Thailand and Mexico [11][12]