全国碳市场行情简报（2025年第89期）-20250606

Report Information - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 89, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: 2025-06-06 [3] Investment Strategy - Strategy Suggestion: Enterprises with a quota gap are advised to make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. In 2025, the remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [4]. Core Logic - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, there was some bottom-fishing demand. However, the release of mandatory circulation quotas is currently insufficient, there is still potential selling pressure, the market price is oscillating at the bottom, and there is still a lack of upward momentum. Considering the verification node, trading volume is expected to rise in mid-to-late June, and the bottom range in June is estimated to be 62 - 66 yuan/ton. - If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to be postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height more limited. If the single-day trading volume can increase significantly, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [6]. Market Quotes CEA Spot Quotes | | CEA19 - 20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 67.00 | 67.50 | 67.00 | 69.26 | 68.76 | | Daily Change (%) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.36% | 0.98% | | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | | 0.50 | -0.50 | 2.26 | -0.50 | | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 68.45 | | Total Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.92 | 121.94 | | Listing Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.92 | 6.94 | | Bulk Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 115.00 | | Total Turnover (10,000 yuan) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8349.17 | [8][9] CCER Trading Information - Transaction Average Price: 85.00 yuan/ton - Daily Change: 0.00% - Turnover: 0.85 million yuan - Trading Volume: 0.01 million tons - Cumulative Trading Volume: 188.06 million tons [10] Today's Market Summary - CEA: CEA23 and CEA24 rebounded slightly. The listing trading volume was 11.9 million tons, and the bulk trading volume was 115.0 million tons. - CCER: The listing agreement trading volume was 0.01 million tons, and the transaction average price was 85.00 yuan/ton (0.00% change) [12]