黑色金属日报-20250606

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for different products are provided, with red stars representing a predicted upward trend and green stars representing a predicted downward trend. For example, products like rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, etc., are rated with three stars (★★★), indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity at present [1]. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows mixed trends. For steel products, the demand outlook is pessimistic, but market sentiment has improved due to the China-US presidential call, with short - term fluctuations expected. For iron ore, there is an expected limited rebound and a mainly oscillatory trend. For coke, coking coal, silicon manganese, and silicon iron, price rebounds are observed, but the upside space is restricted by various factors [2][3][4]. Summary by Product Steel - The steel market has strengthened today. Rebar's apparent demand has dropped significantly week - on - week, production has declined, and the inventory reduction pace has slowed. Hot - rolled coil demand has fallen, production has increased, and inventory has started to accumulate. Iron - water production is gradually decreasing but remains at a relatively high level. The improvement in infrastructure is limited, manufacturing prosperity has slowed, and real - estate sales lack sustained recovery. US tariff increases impact steel exports. Although market sentiment has improved, demand expectations are pessimistic, restricting the upside space [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is oscillating strongly today. Supply has reached a yearly high globally, and domestic arrivals have rebounded significantly. The decline in port inventory has narrowed, and the amount of berthed ships has increased. Terminal demand is weak in the off - season, but iron - water production remains high, and steel mills have no strong motivation to cut production actively. The short - term rebound is due to oversold conditions, but the mid - term risk of industrial chain negative feedback exists, so the rebound space is limited, and the trend is mainly oscillatory [3]. Coke - Coke prices have rebounded significantly. Iron - water production has decreased slightly, and the third round of coking price cuts has partially been implemented, but coking daily production remains at a high level this year. Overall coke inventory has increased slightly, and traders are not making purchases. The carbon element supply is still abundant, and with the easing of tariff impacts and other factors, prices have rebounded. However, due to inventory pressure, the upside space should not be overly optimistic [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have rebounded significantly. Coking coal mine production has declined slightly from a high level, the number of shut - down mines has increased, and the spot auction market has weakened with continuous price drops. Terminal inventory has continued to decline slightly. Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, and prices have rebounded under certain conditions. But due to inventory pressure, the upside space is limited [6]. Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices have rebounded mainly driven by coking coal. Due to previous continuous production cuts, inventory levels have decreased, but weekly production has started to rise, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. It is expected that the manganese mine quotation will decrease month - on - month. Iron - water production has declined slightly, and silicon manganese supply has increased slightly. Manganese ore inventory has started to accumulate, and market expectations have changed. It is recommended to take a small - position long position and observe the sustainability of the rebound [7]. Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices have rebounded mainly driven by coking coal. Iron - water production has decreased slightly. Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Metal magnesium production has increased month - on - month, and secondary demand has remained stable at a high level. Silicon iron supply has continued to decline, market trading volume is average, and on - balance - sheet inventory has decreased slightly. Some silicon iron producers may adopt a trading model to help with inventory reduction, and the sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed [8].