国投期货农产品日报-20250606

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Domestic): Not explicitly stated, but short - term influenced by local and international factors, mid - term weather - driven [2] - Soybean Meal: Not explicitly stated, influenced by trade relations and weather, with potential for price increase in 6 - 8 months [3] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: Expected to maintain range - bound trading [4] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: Short - term expected to fluctuate, mid - term expected to shift upwards [5] - Corn: Market to continue oscillating, weak demand may lead to a downward - biased oscillation [6] - Pig: Short - term spot price has room to fall, mid - term policy may stabilize prices [7] - Egg: Spot price has room to fall, near - month futures should be shorted on rallies [8] Core Viewpoints - The call between Chinese and US leaders has brought positive sentiment to the agricultural product market, but there are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade [3] - Weather is a major factor affecting the prices of overseas soybeans and North American oilseed crops in the medium term [2][4][5] - The supply and demand fundamentals of different agricultural products vary, and prices are affected by multiple factors such as trade relations, weather, and production cycles [2][3][4][5][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean prices rebounded slightly with reduced positions. The upcoming procurement auction has a top price of 4,200 yuan/ton. Short - term weather in Northeast China is favorable for crops, and mid - term prices are weather - driven. Imported soybeans are optimistic due to the leaders' call, and US soybeans may be affected by weather from July to August [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The leaders' call boosted market sentiment, causing Dalian soybean meal to increase in position and price. US soybeans continued to rebound, and the drought - affected area decreased. Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and soybean meal inventory is rising. Attention should be paid to weather - driven price increases from June to August [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic oils are weaker than meals, and the oil - meal ratio has declined. Soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. Mid - term, US soybeans are weather - driven, and palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle. Overall, soybean and palm oil are expected to range - bound [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market shows stronger meal and weaker oil. The call between leaders boosted the price of external oilseeds, and the cost increase was passed on to downstream products. The futures price is mainly affected by trade relations in the short term and is expected to oscillate; it is expected to shift upwards in the medium term [5] Corn - Corn futures continued to rise with reduced positions. The spot price in Northeast China is stable, and there is a stable supply at Shandong processing enterprises. New wheat is replacing corn in some areas, and demand is weak. The market will continue to oscillate weakly [6] Pig - The July contract of live pigs hit a new low. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase in the future, and short - term spot prices may continue to fall. The policy aims to stabilize prices, and the future supply pressure may be reduced marginally [7] Egg - From the perspective of the production - price - profit cycle, the current egg price is still relatively high, and the spot price has room to fall. Near - month futures should be shorted on rallies, and the far - month has no signs of a reversal [8]