豆粕劲升、棉花上涨

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. After the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents on June 5th, the market's optimism about the trade situation increased, which had different impacts on different agricultural products. Some products were boosted by this positive sentiment, while others were affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and weather conditions. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Soybean Meal - Trend: Strongly rising. The 2509 contract was boosted by trade optimism and rising import costs. The price broke through the 3000 - integer mark, showing technical strength [1][2]. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support level for the 2509 contract is 2980, and the resistance level is 3050 [2]. (2) Cotton - Trend: Breaking upward. The 2509 contract was driven by the positive sentiment of trade optimism. Although the fundamentals remained unchanged, the market expected an increase in cotton - textile product exports. However, the downstream demand was in the off - season, which limited the upward space [3]. - Strategy: Close short positions and go long with a light position. The support level for the 2509 contract is 13330, and the resistance level is 13475 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - Trend: Rising first and then falling, closing with a shadow - line negative candle. The expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production and inventory limited the increase, while the increase in export volume provided some support. The domestic inventory increased, and the demand was weak [5]. - Strategy: Go short with a light position. The support level for the 2509 contract is 8058, and the resistance level is 8186 [5]. (4) Soybean Oil - Trend: Strongly rising. Driven by the positive sentiment of Sino - US trade relations, the price rebounded technically. However, the large arrival of imported soybeans increased the supply, which might limit the increase [7]. - Strategy: Close short positions. The support level for the 2509 contract is 7686, and the resistance level is 7750 [7]. (5) Sugar - Trend: Falling first and then rising, rebounding at a low level. Affected by the decline in ICE raw sugar futures prices, Zhengzhou sugar opened lower, but the high domestic sugar sales rate and low inventory provided support [9]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. The support level for the 2509 contract is 5688, and the resistance level is 5741 [9]. (6) Corn - Trend: Continuously rising. Supported by tight supply and declining port inventory, the price showed a stable upward trend [11]. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support level for the 2507 contract is 2329, and the resistance level is 2350 [11]. (7) Live Pigs - Trend: Oscillating and falling, continuing the weak trend. High inventory in the breeding end and weak downstream demand in the off - season put pressure on the price [14]. - Strategy: Go short with a light position. The support level for the 2509 contract is 13380, and the resistance level is 13545 [14]. (8) Eggs - Trend: Continuously falling. High egg - laying hen inventory and weak post - festival demand, along with storage difficulties in the rainy and hot season, led to downward pressure on the price [15][17]. - Strategy: Go short with a light position. The support level for the 2507 contract is 2850, and the resistance level is 2889 [19]. (9) Apples - Trend: Rising first and then falling, with oscillating prices. The peak season of fruit listing affected apple sales, but low inventory and the expected reduction in some western regions provided some support [21]. - Strategy: Hold long positions. The support level for the 2510 contract is 7651, and the resistance level is 7800 [24]. (10) Peanuts - Trend: Rising and then falling, continuously closing with negative candles. Affected by the volatility of the oil market, the price showed an oscillating trend. Limited supply at the grass - roots level, weak downstream consumption, and cautious purchasing by traders contributed to this situation [23]. - Strategy: Trade short - term. If the 10 - day moving average is broken again, go short with a light position. The support level for the 2510 contract is 8400, and the resistance level is 8450 [23].