国投期货化工日报-20250606

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Short - fiber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a balanced short - term trend with poor trading opportunities) [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend, with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price trends. Some products are under supply pressure and weak demand, while others may have short - term bullish factors but also face long - term uncertainties. [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The price continued to decline and fluctuate. Coal prices were low, inland plant maintenance restarts increased, and enterprise inventories rose. Coastal olefins increased their load, but high import arrivals led to port inventory accumulation and weakening basis. The market is expected to be weakly volatile, and the impact of ship - age restrictions in Jiangsu Maritime needs attention. [2] Urea - The futures price remained weak. Agricultural demand was in a lull, market sentiment weakened, production enterprises' inventories increased, and spot prices declined. Although the device maintenance volume increased, the load was still high, and short - term support at the integer level should be monitored. [3] Polyolefins - The futures main contracts fluctuated narrowly. For polyethylene, there were many maintenance plans in June, providing some support on the supply side. However, it was the demand off - season, and the support for spot prices was limited. For polypropylene, it entered the consumption off - season, and the market lacked clear signals. The supply pressure increased, and the supply - demand contradiction was expected to expand. [4] Styrene - The futures main contract fluctuated narrowly around the 5 - day moving average. There was an expectation of supply increase, and the strong selling intention of producers suppressed downstream replenishment. The market sentiment was weak. [5] Polyester - PX and PTA prices oscillated and declined. Their开工 rates continued to rise, while the polyester capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the terminal weaving load was adjusted down. The market was under pressure. - Ethylene glycol prices declined, with new device production and restart of coal - chemical maintenance increasing, port inventories rising, and demand possibly weakening. - Short - fiber terminal orders weakened, and the price followed raw materials. The processing margin was still low. - Bottle chip orders might enter the end of the peak season, with potential inventory accumulation pressure and possible industry production cuts. [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices rose due to improved sentiment. However, supply pressure increased with less maintenance in June and new production expectations. Exports were expected to weaken, and there was inventory accumulation pressure. With the decline in calcium carbide prices, the cost support collapsed, and the futures price might oscillate at a low level. - Caustic soda futures prices continued to be weak. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali increased, and the start - up was at a high level. Although liquid caustic soda inventory decreased, there was still pressure, and the downstream demand was weak. [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices rose due to improved sentiment and supply reduction rumors in Shahe. Although there was an improvement in restocking sentiment and production - sales ratio, the inventory pressure was high, and the downstream situation was still weak. Attention should be paid to cost changes and supply changes in Shahe. - Soda ash prices rose with improved sentiment. There were few maintenance plans in June, and supply was high. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and there was a trend of inventory accumulation in the photovoltaic industry. In the long term, supply pressure remained, and a high - level short - selling strategy was recommended. [8]