金属行业2025半年度展望（Ⅱ）：供需结构强化叠加流动性周期切换—贵金属行业进入强景气周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry as of June 6, 2025 [3] Core Viewpoints - The global metal industry is currently in a weak supply cycle, with a structural tightening in the gold market and a potential continuous expansion of the silver supply-demand gap [5][10] - The pricing logic of gold has undergone a qualitative change, with supply-demand attributes becoming more significant in determining price resilience [9][44] - The supply growth of various metals is expected to remain rigid, with industrial metals showing strong resilience despite a low inventory cycle [7][21] Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global metal industry is experiencing a weak supply cycle, with exploration investments declining by 3% to $12.5 billion in 2024 [6][21] - The average supply growth rate of global mining is significantly lower than the output growth rate, with a drop from 6.35% to 2.22% in 2024 [7][22] - The supply state of the global metal industry is expected to remain rigid until 2028 due to reduced exploration investments [6][21] 2. Precious Metals Analysis - Gold's pricing logic has shifted, with supply-demand attributes now playing a crucial role in price determination [9][44] - The global gold supply is in a structurally tight state, with production costs rising and supply growth slowing [9][45] - The silver supply-demand gap is projected to widen, with global silver demand expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.9% from 2024 to 2027 [10][11] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: resilient industrial metals, small metals with enhanced growth attributes, and precious metals with strong hedging properties [7][8] - The copper and gold sectors are driving a return to non-ferrous metal allocation, with public fund holdings in the sector increasing significantly [8][10] - Related companies for investment include Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and others in the precious metals sector [9][11]