通信行业2025年半年度投资策略：算力产业链发展迅速，看好光模块&IDC&物联网模组

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the communication industry [2] Core Insights - The communication sector has seen a decline, ranking 25th among 31 primary industries with a cumulative drop of 4.0% from the beginning of the year to June 3, 2025 [4][20] - The valuation of the communication sector is considered reasonable, with a PE (TTM) range of 21.3X to 24.8X, and a PE of 23.0X at the end of May [4][22] - The communication industry value chain includes operator-led investments in wired and wireless networks, AI computing power investments by operators and large model manufacturers, and integrated applications such as IoT, vehicle networking, industrial internet, enterprise communication, and satellite internet [4][25] - The report highlights investment opportunities in optical modules, IDC, and IoT modules for the second half of the year [4][26] Summary by Sections Optical Modules - The optical module market is expected to benefit from increased AI capital expenditure by leading cloud computing companies in the US and China, with growth rates projected to decline but remain robust [5][38] - The US and China’s top five cloud providers are expected to see their optical module spending growth rates decrease from 70% and 130% in 2024 to 50% and 90% in 2025, respectively [5][38] - The report notes that the impact of US tariffs on optical modules is limited, with current tariffs on exports to China increasing from 7.5% to 27.5% [5][38] IDC (Intelligent Data Center) - The IDC sector is entering a new phase driven by AI, with significant capital investments from major internet platforms and private capital [6][9] - The report anticipates that supportive policies from government agencies will emerge to facilitate the development of intelligent computing centers [6][76] - The domestic IDC market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to increase from 430 billion yuan in 2017 to 1532 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20% [55][56] IoT Modules - The report identifies leading domestic companies in the IoT module sector, such as Quectel and Guanghetong, which have captured significant market shares globally [86] - The global wireless communication module market is expected to grow from 48.5 billion yuan in 2025 to 72.6 billion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 10.6% [89][91] - The automotive electronics module market is highlighted as a key growth driver, with expectations of a compound annual growth rate of 12.6% from 2025 to 2029 [93] AI Market - The global edge AI market is projected to experience explosive growth, with the market size expected to increase from 321.9 billion yuan in 2025 to 1,223 billion yuan by 2029, representing a compound annual growth rate of 39.6% [101][102] - The report emphasizes that AI modules will become foundational for edge AI development, integrating advanced computing capabilities for various applications [97][101]