化工行业2025年下半年投资展望：基础化工行业：行业供需格局改善，成本压力缓解

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][63]. Core Insights - The chemical industry in China is expected to see a recovery from its low point, with improvements in supply and demand dynamics. The chemical price index has shown a slight downward trend, but global energy costs have decreased from their highs, leading to a more favorable outlook for the industry [4][43]. - The report identifies three key investment directions: 1. Sub-industries with improving supply-demand dynamics and expected recovery in industry prosperity. 2. Leading companies driven by capital expenditure and R&D for long-term growth. 3. High-end chemical new materials benefiting from increased demand or ongoing domestic substitution [5][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The chemical industry is currently in a low prosperity phase, with the chemical price index down approximately 6% in the first half of 2025. However, there are signs of improvement in supply and demand, with domestic manufacturing demand showing recovery and inventory levels stabilizing [4][14][43]. - Domestic manufacturing value added in the chemical sector grew by 8.9% year-on-year as of April 2025, indicating a positive trend in demand [17]. - Fixed asset investment growth in the chemical sector has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.3% as of April 2025, suggesting a potential turning point in capacity expansion [29]. 2. Key Investment Directions - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-industries that are expected to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics, such as titanium dioxide, additives (amino acids and vitamins), chemical fibers, and refrigerants [5][44]. - Leading companies are expected to benefit from capital expenditure and R&D investments, with significant capital expenditures projected for major players like China National Petroleum and Wanhua Chemical [6][48]. - The demand for high-end chemical new materials is anticipated to grow, particularly in sectors like 5G, new displays, and biomedical applications, which are driving domestic substitution efforts [7][52]. 3. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Longbai Group, Hualu Hengsheng, Yangnong Chemical, Xinheng, and Guocera Materials, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the expected recovery in the chemical industry [8][56].