钢矿短线反弹：预期高度有限

Report Overview - Report Title: "Steel and Ore Short-term Rebound with Limited Expected Height" [2] - Report Date: June 6, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Ji Xiaoyun [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Steel: In the policy vacuum period, macro factors have limited impact. Steel supply has slightly decreased, and demand is shifting from the peak season to the off - season, especially for construction steel. The cost of raw materials provides support, and the short - term trend may continue to rebound but with limited height, while the medium - term trend may still be bearish [4]. - Iron Ore: The daily output of hot metal has decreased, and iron ore shipments are expected to increase in June. The medium - term supply and demand of iron ore will continue to be loose, with a weak price trend. There is a short - term rebound, and the upper limit of the main contract is strongly pressured at 720 [4]. - Overall Strategy: Short - term rebound, medium - term bearish. Try short positions on rebounds and set stop - losses [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel and Ore Market Analysis - Steel Supply: This week, the output of the five major steel products decreased slightly, with different trends among varieties. Rebar output decreased, while hot - rolled coil and medium - thick plate output increased. Rebar supply has been at a low level since last year, hot - rolled coil output has increased rapidly since May, and medium - thick plate output has been high since the end of last year [16][18][20]. - Steel Inventory: Rebar inventory is generally low, with a flat factory inventory curve and continuous destocking of social inventory. Hot - rolled coil factory inventory is at a historical low, and social inventory is also being destocked. Stainless steel supply and inventory are generally high [22][25]. - Steel Demand: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the steel industry has officially entered the traditional off - season. Seasonal demand has declined due to rainy weather in the south and high temperatures in the north [27]. - Iron Ore Market: The output of hot metal has continued to decline, and iron ore shipments may increase in June. Port inventory is at a medium level [28]. Trading Strategies - Steel and Ore: Short - term rebound, medium - term bearish. Try short positions on rebounds and set stop - losses [5]. - Three Oils: Unilateral trading - short - term strong, medium - to long - term bearish for palm oil, oscillating for soybean oil, and high - level oscillating for rapeseed oil. For arbitrage, re - enter the spread - widening arbitrage between the 2509 and 2601 contracts of soybean and palm oil [6]. - Double Meals: Unilateral trading - short - term rebound, short - term long positions should be carefully participated in, with quick entry and exit. Wait for short - selling opportunities in the medium - to long - term [7]. Important Information - In late May, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was 209,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9% [15]. - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 8.8038 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 470 tons, a decrease of 0.1%; the total inventory was 13.6381 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,900 tons, a decrease of 0.1%; the apparent consumption was 8.8217 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5% [15]. - From May 26 to June 1, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 25.974 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.533 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 25.365 million tons, a week - on - week increase of... (incomplete information in the report) [15]