CSEC,China Shenhua(SH:601088) HTSC·2025-06-06 13:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of HKD 40.00 for H shares and RMB 45.50 for A shares [9]. Core Views - The company emphasizes its strong resource base, business synergy, and stable downstream consumption, which enhance its ability to withstand cyclical fluctuations. The low volatility and high yield logic continue to highlight its value, restoring investor confidence in long-term allocations [1]. - The report identifies mixed short-term factors affecting the coal industry, including a decrease in coal imports and potential support for domestic demand due to uncertainties in external demand [2]. - Long-term factors indicate that the coal price is supported by rising production costs and stricter regulations, which may elevate the barriers to capacity expansion [3]. - The company is positioned as a leading integrated player in the coal, electricity, and transportation sectors, leveraging its high-quality resources and strategic partnerships to navigate market cycles [4]. - Profit forecasts for the company remain stable, with expected net profits of RMB 501 million, RMB 500 million, and RMB 502 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The company maintains a high historical dividend payout ratio, reinforcing its commitment to shareholder returns [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Short-term Factors - Positive factors include a decrease in coal imports, which may alleviate supply-demand imbalances, and the resilience of domestic manufacturing supporting energy consumption growth [2]. - Negative factors involve early resumption of coal mining leading to increased inventories and potential downward pressure on coal prices [2]. Industry Long-term Factors - The coal industry is experiencing a significant loss rate, with over 60% of companies reporting losses due to rising costs driven by inflation and operational challenges [3]. - New regulations effective July 1 will raise the barriers for coal mining operations, increasing compliance costs and potentially supporting higher production costs [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to maintain a stable profit trajectory with net profits forecasted at RMB 50,086 million for 2025, reflecting a decline from previous years but supported by a consistent dividend policy [5][7]. - The report utilizes a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) for valuation, maintaining target prices of RMB 45.50 for A shares and HKD 40.00 for H shares, emphasizing the importance of stable dividends in the current market environment [5][14].